Modestly

U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies that have taken a shine to the oily shale plays are boosting their capital expenditures (capex) in 2011, while the gas-focused shale operators are reining in the spending, according to a survey by Barclays Capital.

Given a little boost from the modestly firmer expiration of October futures and an almost imperceptible return of higher temperatures in the South, the September daily market ended Wednesday with a near-repeat of Tuesday’s trading — prices nearly all within a narrow range around unchanged.

Nearby futures gained modestly and more deferred contracts posted narrow losses Monday as traders squared their books prior to Tuesday’s options expiration and Wednesday’s futures termination.

Thursday’s cash market was a near-repeat of the one a day earlier. Flat to modestly higher numbers again dominated at eastern points, while most of the moderate softness remained concentrated in the West.

Gains, concentrated in the Midcontinent, Northeast and much of the West, modestly outnumbered losses elsewhere Monday as heat across the southern third of the U.S. continued to wrestle with relatively moderate conditions to the north for primary market influence. The previous Friday’s 3.5-cent loss by August futures and the return of industrial load after the weekend were other opposing price factors.

Despite modestly supportive prior-day futures, the cash market acknowledged the general bearishness of weather fundamentals in falling at nearly all points Tuesday. The remote threat Monday of an early-season tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico had pretty much disappeared a day later.

Propelled almost entirely by the previous day’s 49-cent futures spike following a modestly bullish storage injection report, the cash market rose at nearly all points Friday. Although it was on the light side, residual heating load in Canada, the northern half of the U.S. and to some extent in the eastern end of the South provided auxiliary price support, and apparently the usual weekend decline of industrial demand had little impact.

Falling points modestly outnumbered rising ones Wednesday as forecasts of cooling trends in several areas vied for influence with warming trends in other areas, continuing hot weather across most of the southern half of the U.S. and a prior-day futures gain of 15.2 cents. Most of the losses were considerably larger than the gains, so overall softness was clearly dominant.

Natural gas futures rose modestly in light, noncommittal post-holiday trading Wednesday. Traders noted that it was unusually quiet for an options expiration, and in spite of bearish fundamentals no one was willing to aggressively sell the market for fear of getting caught on the wrong side of a weather-driven price advance. Longer-term traders hint at a market bottom.