With little in the way of fresh news, natural gas futures limpedmostly sideways yesterday as cautious summer bulls matched upnearly perfectly with March bears. In fact, the only notablefeature in Thursday’s session was a rash of market-on-close buying,which firmed prices at the end. The March contract advanced 1.9cents to finish at $2.549 on its penultimate trading day.
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Modest Upticks Expected to Yield to a Plunge Today
Most of the cash market ranged from flat to a little over anickel higher Monday, but that mild showing of firmness isn’texpected to survive into today.
Small Gains Fail to Sway Bearish Sentiment
Modest gains were seen in the natural gas pit yesterday after alocal-led sell-off was stymied by scale-down trade buying. Asidefrom cash prices moving a couple pennies higher, the fundamentalpicture remained overwhelmingly bearish, prompting traders to blametechnical factors for Thursday’s strength. The February contracttraded up 2.8 cents to $2.196 and March bounced 3.6 cents to$2.237. Equally as impressive was the 12-month strip, which gained2.6 cents to $2.391
Independents Dominate Modest Gulf Lease Sale
Yesterday’s Western Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale 174 brought inonly about one-sixth the amount of high bids the previous westernGulf sale garnered last year; however, a spokeswoman for oneindustry group downplayed the lackluster results.
Late Rebound Puts Bulls Back at Helm
Despite a round of midday profit taking, the natural gas futuresmarket was able to eke out a modest advance amid continued see-sawtrading activity yesterday. The September contract led all othermonths, posting a 1.9-cent gain en route to a $2.727 close.Estimated volume was robust with 86,261 contracts changing hands.
Screen Provides Stability for Most Cash Prices
Given modest support by a small screen gain, most cash tradingpoints tended to level off Thursday instead of continuing a slidethat many had expected would last into the weekend. Northeastcitygates constituted the rare weaker market in the East with dropsof almost a nickel as the region cooled off further from a heatwave that set power generation load records early this week.
Market Slide Comes to End With Modest Upturn
The moderate price slide that defined much of the cash marketsince late last week reached a plateau Tuesday as flat to slightlyhigher pricing dominated reports. The correlation of cash movementwith a tight-ranged screen was very high, sources said. A gradualwarming trend was just starting to be felt in the major marketareas of the Midwest and Northeast, they added, but it was lendingsupport to small price increases at citygates and in the Gulf Coastand Midcontinent regions.
Screen Gain Leads Cash Prices to Modest Firming
The cash market was flat to a little higher Wednesday, and onceagain sources had little but the Henry Hub futures contract to citeas an influence. Most points were flat or just barely higher,however, with only a few coming close to matching the futures riseof over a nickel. The screen seems to be about the only thinghappening for cash, a Midcontinent trader said, “but it [screen] isnot running on fundamentals, just technicals.”
Prices Stage Modest Retreat; Storage Report Bearish
Lacking any influence from weather or a flat screen, cash pricesranged from flat to down about a nickel Wednesday. Nearly alldeclines were by smaller amounts than the increases that hadpreceded them Tuesday. In one marketer’s view, “Apparently priceswent back down to compensate for Tuesday’s unsupported rise.There’s no weather and no [pipeline capacity] restrictions.”
Renewed Price Rises Spread Across All Markets
The cash market shrugged off Tuesday’s modest weakening toresume an upward climb Wednesday. Yesterday’s gains weren’t aslarge as those on Monday (mostly 5-10 cents compared with 10-20cents, respectively). Also unlike Monday’s trading, there was nogeographical divergence with Western increases being significantlyless than the East’s; the Wednesday upticks were mixed relativelyequally in both areas.