Moderately

A 5.4-cent rise in May futures on the previous Friday was abetted by moderately chillier weather that developed over the weekend and the return of industrial demand from its typical weekend hiatus in causing prices to range from flat to about a dime higher at nearly all points Monday.

What had been only a moderately soft market Wednesday with mostly single-digit losses and some western gains tossed into the mix appeared to be turning into a near-rout Thursday as fairly large double-digit losses extended across the board. A continuing dearth of weather-based demand — in either the form of cooling or heating — was abetted by a prior-day futures decline of 3.4 cents in quashing cash quotes.

The October aftermarket got going on a moderately bearish note Wednesday, but in nearly all cases the losses were quite a bit smaller than Tuesday’s September-ending quotes, which saw double-digit declines at all points. A bit of extra chill and the previous day’s gain of 4.5 cents in the first prompt-month trading by November futures may have helped spur increases at several points, mostly in the West, but weak weather fundamentals continued to deny increases in most of the East.

The nearly $3.5 trillion budget resolutions passed by the House and Senate Thursday had some moderately good news for producers — lawmakers did not include the $32.6 billion tax hike on oil and natural gas that President Obama proposed for fiscal year 2010, at least not at this stage of the budget process (see Daily GPI, April 2).

The nearly $3.5 trillion budget resolutions passed by the House and Senate last Thursday had some moderately good news for producers — they did not include the $32.6 billion tax hike on oil and natural that President Obama proposed for fiscal year 2010, at least not at this stage of the budget process (see NGI, March 2).

Losses moderately outnumbered gains in Friday’s cash market as growth of heating load in the South was offset by still-substantial but eroding weather-based demand in the Northeast, Midwest/Midcontinent and Rockies.

Friday’s launch of the February aftermarket was almost evenly divided between rising and falling points, but gains moderately outnumbered the losses. Frigid weather will be returning early this week in some areas, and Friday’s cash market had extra support from the previous day’s increase of 15.6 cents by March futures.

Forecasts of moderately higher natural gas demand, a spike in domestic output, a “healthy and comfortable” level of storage, a slightly warmer winter and a stagnant economy point to flat pressure on wholesale gas prices going into the winter heating season, although there may not be an “overnight impact” on consumer bills, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association’s (NGSA) winter outlook released last Thursday.

Forecasts of moderately higher natural gas demand, a spike in domestic output, a “healthy and comfortable” level of storage, a slightly warmer winter and a stagnant economy point to flat pressure on wholesale gas prices going into the winter heating season, although there may not be an “overnight impact” on consumer bills, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association’s (NGSA) winter outlook released Thursday.