Despite a mini-heat wave in the Midwest proving to be short-lived, the cash market found enough support from the previous day’s futures spike and remaining high temperatures in much of the East to realize further gains at nearly all points Friday.
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Prices Up Strongly as Eastern Cooling Load Spreads
With Philadelphia temperatures expected to peak around 90 Wednesday, the combination of a mini-heat wave in the East, a 15.8-cent advance by July futures on the previous Friday and the restoration of industrial demand that had been missing during a long holiday weekend caused double-digit price gains across the board Tuesday in the launch of the June aftermarket.
Heat Losses, Hub Restart Cause Overall Softness
Despite a mini-heat wave approaching in the Midwest and strong prior-day screen support, prices fell at all but three points Wednesday. Temperatures are remaining high in the southern tier of states but are due to retreat significantly Thursday in much of the Northeast and Rockies. The late-afternoon news of the Independence Hub restart Tuesday played a part in Wednesday’s softness because of the anticipated return of major supply volumes in the Gulf Coast, and a couple of sources suggested that the cash market retreated because prices had just become top-heavy from their own strength in recent weeks.
Growing Firmness in Mixed Pricing Unlikely to Last
Differing weather fundamentals in various regions produced mixed price movement again Thursday, but due to a mini-heat wave developing in the Northeast, there were considerably more gains than on Wednesday when softness pervaded most of the market. However, sources agreed that declines will set in again at most if not all points in Friday’s trading for the holiday weekend.
Futures Trade in Slim 19-Cent Range; Direction in Question
April natural gas was mostly quiet Wednesday as traders assessed the market’s next move. After making a mini-run higher in morning trade to hit a $6.880 high, the prompt-month contract receded from that point and bounced within a range from $6.690 to the mid-$6.80s for the remainder of the session, ultimately closing at $6.733, up 1.9 cents on the day.
Mini-Rally Spurred by Colder Weather Not Expected to Last
Some traders may have been surprised to see prices leveling off or climbing a few cents higher at most non-western points Thursday. But fundamental weather support was rising, as colder weather either had entered or was due in the Northeast, Gulf Coast production area and Pacific Northwest. Also, the screen was marginally higher during the morning, before turning negative later.
No Relief in Sight for Futures Bulls Caught in Terrible Twos
After spending the first two weeks of July in a mini uptrend, natural gas futures broke beneath major support last week, as traders continued to factor in the blistering pace of storage refills and normal- to below-normal temperatures. The August contract was hit with heavy selling Monday, and then again Wednesday through Thursday, pressuring prices to new 14-month lows and dashing bulls’ hopes that a bottom had been achieved. August moved mostly sideways on Friday to close at $2.955, up a modest 1.6-cent for the day but down a whopping 29.5 for the week.
Industry Briefs
Atlanta-based Mirant Corp. said a mini-tender offer was made for 1% of its stock last week by Vector Enterprises Inc. Vector offered to purchase the stock for $28 a share. In response, Mirant said it “strongly recommends that its shareholders not tender their shares” to Vector because the offer “is considerably below the current market price.” Mirant develops, constructs, owns and operates power plants and sells wholesale electricity, natural gas and other energy commodities. With 8,000 employees worldwide, Mirant has extensive operations in North America, Europe and Asia, and owns or controls more than 20,000 MW of electric generation capacity around the world, with another 9,000 MW under development. Mirant also controls an extensive natural gas asset base in North America, including transportation, storage and access to approximately 3.7 Bcf/d.
Short-Covering, Mini-Rally Does Little to Dissuade Bears
Buoyed by cold weather in the Northeast U.S. and in sympathywith higher heating oil prices, natural gas futures checked higherin light holiday trading Monday as traders covered shorts initiatedin last week’s sell-off. At the closing bell the November contractwas 14.2 cents higher at $5.15.
Screen, Cool Weather Generate Mild Swing Firmness
The mini-rallies reported at several points in Wednesday’s latecash trading apparently carried over into Thursday, resulting in aflat to slightly higher March swing market. A strong showing byHenry Hub futures on Nymex helped give cash a boost, sources said.In addition, there was enough chillier weather in the midwesternand northeastern market areas to have an impact on heating load.