Tennessee said due to limited operational flexibility, mild weather and tests of affiliate Southern’s Bear Creek storage field starting Tuesday (see below), it will implement a systemwide OFO Action Alert effective Wednesday until further notice for all Balancing Parties. See the bulletin board for OFO Action Alert conditions.
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Citing mild weather and limited operational flexibility, Tennessee said a systemwide Imbalance Warning will become effective Saturday. All delivery point operators will be required to keep actual daily takes out of the system equal to or greater than scheduled quantities regardless of their cumulative imbalance position. All receipt point operators must keep actual daily receipts into the system equal to or less than scheduled quantities regardless of their cumulative imbalance position.
The overall weather outlook remains mild to cool, but overnight lows in the 30s and 40s in parts of the Northeast, Rockies and Canada may have been enough to pull the cash market out of its recent slide Tuesday. Certainly the futures drop of 4.9 cents a day earlier didn’t contribute anything to the cause.
November natural gas continued its march lower Monday as traders pointed to a pervasive technical downtrend, and the weather outlook suggested more mild temperatures across the Midwest. Positive economic figures were not enough to halt the trend. At the close November had fallen 4.9 cents to $3.617 and December had given up 3.4 cents to $3.928. November crude oil dropped $1.59 to $77.61/bbl.
Battered by negative influences seeming to come from all directions — mostly mild to chilly (but not particularly cold) weather, weak prior-day futures, storage injection capacity growing ever tighter and any tropical storm threat to Gulf of Mexico production deemed unlikely for the rest of the season — the cash market fell at nearly all points Thursday.
A day after lifting an Imbalance Warning on Line 300 downstream of Station 313, Tennessee cited mild weather and limited operational flexibility in saying it will implement a systemwide Imbalance Warning Saturday. It will require all delivery point operators to keep actual daily takes out of the system equal to or greater than scheduled quantities regardless of their cumulative imbalance position, and all receipt point operators to keep actual daily receipts into the system equal to or less than scheduled quantities regardless of their cumulative imbalance position.
October natural gas fell again in uninspired trading that saw traders ascribe the losses to more mild weather patterns. October dropped 6.8 cents to $3.730 and November fell 6.5 cents to $3.820. November crude oil lost $1.00 to $85.92/bbl.
Even with heat forecasts in most areas remaining on the seasonal to relatively mild side for the middle of one of the hottest months in the year, prices rose at nearly all locations Friday. Largely ignoring the usual weekend downturn of industrial demand, the cash market instead derived most of its strength from the previous day’s below-expectations storage injection report for the preceding week and the subsequent bullish reaction by futures traders.
September natural gas retreated Tuesday as traders factored in a mild change in the temperature outlook. At the close September had fallen 3.3 cents to $4.155 and October had eased 3.4 cents to $4.156. September crude oil fell $1.10 to $93.79/bbl.
Relatively moderate heat levels in the Mid-South and Northeast, along with mild to cool forecasts for Canada, the Pacific Northwest and sections of the Midwest, failed to prevent a large majority of locations from realizing small price gains Tuesday. However, inland California was beginning to join much of the desert Southwest in anticipating highs ranging from the mid 90s to more than 110, and the Rockies — while still fairly moderate — had predicted peak temperatures start to climb into the low 80s.