Might

As might be expected at a Calgary conference where producersdominated attendance and the first day’s panels, bullishness onfuture gas prices ran rampant despite last week’s price slump.Emphasizing the challenges and opportunities in reaching aprojected 30 Tcf/year market by the 2010s, speakers at Ziff EnergyGroup’s North American Gas Strategies conference agreed thatCanadian gas is well positioned to benefit both volume-wise andprice-wise in the coming years.

As might be expected at a Calgary conference where producersdominated attendance and the first day’s panels, bullishness onfuture gas prices ran rampant despite the current week’s slump.Emphasizing the challenges and opportunities in reaching aprojected 30 Tcf/year market by the 2010s, speakers at Ziff EnergyGroup’s “North American Gas Strategies” conference agreed Mondaythat Canadian gas is well positioned to benefit both volume-wiseand price-wise in the coming years.

It had appeared Thursday the tumble back down for cash pricesmight get just as steep as the climb upward had been earlier lastweek. But in Friday’s trading for the weekend, the downward slopegot considerably gentler as few points other than the Southwestbasins fell more than a nickel, and many declines were milder thanthat. In fact, Northern Natural’s demarc and Ventura points sawsmall upticks due to freezing temperatures in parts of the pipe’smarket area, and Chicago citygates also rose, probably fromforecasts of the Upper Plains chill moving eastward.

Cash prices continued climbing by another nickel or more at mostpoints Wednesday, but traders sensed the market might have peakedfor the first week of the May aftermarket. They cited late dealsbeing done several cents below the early-morning highs. And the AGAstorage report of 34 Bcf in injections last week, although it cametoo late to affect Wednesday’s cash business, was regarded by manyas contributing to a more bearish mood. One source characterizedthe figure as “kind of middle of the road” (because it met theexpectations of many) but leaning slightly to the bearish side. Heand others noted the drop in Access futures prices after the reportcame out.

Some speculated Alliance Pipeline might be hurt by FERC’s movenot to issue preliminary determinations (PDs) to the four projectsthat would provide takeaway capacity for Canadian gas from Chicagoto East Coast markets. But Alliance officials last week quicklydismissed that notion.

Small gas producers might not see much if any benefit from aseverance tax relief bill passed by the Texas legislature lastweek. Oil producers, however, will get a break. Relief specified inthe bill is triggered by low commodity prices, and the trigger foroil producers already has been pulled. However, the statecomptroller’s office does not expect gas prices to dive low enough,long enough to enact relief.

Some traders figured they might as well have taken off Tuesdayfor Martin Luther King Day; the cash market to which they returnedseemed about as quiet and low-key as it had been most of last week.Prices showed little variance from weekend numbers, with mostpoints registering as flat to less than a nickel up or down.

Aquila Gas Pipeline might be taken off the auction block inlight of depressed gas liquids prices and the fear a sale pricewon’t do justice to the company’s value. Indeed, the company’ssecond quarter results were something less than stellar. Net incomewas $1.4 million, down from $7 million in the second quarter of1997. This despite the fact gas throughput and marketed volumesaveraged a record 1.4 Bcf/d, compared to 1.2 Bcf/d in the secondquarter of last year. However, total system throughput was 446MMcf/d, compared to 534 MMcf/d in the second quarter of 1997. Anincrease in gas volumes marketed off system to 954 MMcf/d from 642MMcf/d in the second quarter of 1997 reflects the continuedincreased emphasis on marketing activities. Liquids productiondecreased to 25,000 barrels/d from 38,000 barrels/d 2Q 1997. Lowliquids prices were the reason for the decline.

Looking ahead to what might be the defining issues for his nextterm if his renomination is approved by the Senate, CommissionerWilliam L. Massey focused on FERC’s pipeline certification process,its offshore policy, the issues contained in the gas policy optionspaper – which so far have not been made public – and on ISOs on theelectric side. He said the Commission probably will act on the gaspolicy options paper with a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking withinthe next few weeks.