Hype

Shrugging off losses notched in the overnight Access trading session, natural gas futures checked higher throughout the day Thursday as traders reacted to forecasts calling for a changing weather pattern in the second half of November. At the closing bell, the December contract was 9 cents higher at $2.96.

Despite only the most marginal firming of weather fundamentals and a softer screen during the morning, nearly all cash points ranged from flat to about a dime higher Tuesday. Most softening was fairly negligible except for double-digit drops at Sumas, Stanfield, Malin and intra-Alberta, which were due largely to cool Pacific Northwest weather, a NOVA tolerance change Sunday to 0/-20% and a constraint on PG&E Gas Transmission-Northwest deliveries (see Transportation Notes).

Despite numerous press conferences and a lot of hype from political leaders, the bulk of the nearly 10,000 MW in California’s long-term electricity deals still have not been nailed down in formal signed contracts. The agreements are suppose to provide up to 7,000 MW this year and up to 10,000 MW over next 10 years.

After spiking 7% higher Monday on storm hype, natural gasfutures retraced lower yesterday as traders hedged against thepossibility that the storm will miss the Gulf of Mexico entirely.Before tumbling lower, however, the prompt month was able to carveout a fresh all-time prompt month high at $4.85. The Septembercontract finished on the defensive, down 22.7 cents for the sessionat $4.52.

Following the lead of both the over-the-counter and cashmarkets, natural gas futures erupted higher yesterday morning astraders covered shorts on the outside possibility that a tropicalstorm might develop in the Gulf of Mexico. The September contractwas the biggest mover, posting an impressive 21.3-cent gain tofinish at $3.987.

Responding to private weather forecasts early yesterday callingfor continued cold weather in the Northeast, market buyers showedtheir muscles at the starting gate and followed through with strongruns in both futures and cash. February cash prices at the HenryHub were approaching dime increases while March futures soared 13cents to $2.662, a smidgen off its high for the day of $2.675. TheApril contract was up 10.4 cents to $2.605, just under its high of$2.610, and May drove 7.7 cents higher to $2.575.

Even having achieved hurricane status, Irene proved to have nomore “hype” for gas prices left in it. Cash quotes Thursday fell adime or more at most eastern points and a little bit less in theWest. Gulf Coast numbers tended to drop a nickel or so from theirearly morning highs, one trader said. That resulted in the anomalyof him getting identical $2.67 pricing for an early sale inTennessee Zone 0 (South Texas) and a late sale at Transco Station65 (South Louisiana).

Arguments likely raged all day Friday over whether the gasmarket was overreacting to Tropical Storm Bret or not. But as evena member of the “overhyped” camp reluctantly conceded, there was nodenying that cash prices ignored mild northern market-area weatherand the usual drop in weekend load to achieve gains of up to adime. The smallest showings of flat to only about a nickel highercame at western points, which are more insulated from potentiallosses of Gulf of Mexico production.

For the third morning in a row natural gas futures gapped higherat the open before continuing upward as traders covered shortpositions in anticipation of Tropical Storm Bret becoming the firsthurricane in the 1999 Atlantic season. But after notching a $3.015high shortly after noon, the September contract was hit with a waveof profit-taking that delivered the spot month back down to settleat $2.938. Estimated volume was healthy, with 99,927 contractschanging hands.