Hurricanes

As oil and natural gas infrastructure continues to limp back to service following Hurricanes Rita and Katrina, many eyes in the natural gas industry are focused on the Henry Hub near Erath, LA, a physical delivery point that is used as a benchmark for the Nymex futures contract. The hub has been offline since Sept. 22, and no one will even speculate on when it will be back to normal (see Daily GPI, Sept. 27, Sept. 28, Oct. 6).

The slow recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the Gulf Coast region and Gulf of Mexico continued Tuesday with total gas production shut-ins onshore and offshore finally dropping below 8 Bcf/d, according to a report from Golden, CO-based Bentek Energy. Bentek, which is tracking gas production nominations on the region’s major pipeline systems, said shuts-ins totaled about 7,766 MMcf/d on Tuesday, down from 8,003 MMcf/d on Monday and 8,208 MMcf/d on Sunday.

In light of the potential effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on fuel supplies and tightening supplies of natural gas in the Northeast generally, ISO New England (ISO-NE) “is becoming increasingly concerned about the operational reliability of the New England system during the upcoming winter,” the grid operator disclosed in a recent filing submitted to federal energy regulators [ER03-563-053].

In spite of a temporary disruption to natural gas supplies because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the Texas Energy Reliability Council (TERC) said Tuesday winter supplies will be adequate — but gas bills are expected to be a lot higher.

Management consultant R.W. Beck, which said in July that “high oil prices, hot summer weather and hurricanes” could send natural gas spot prices up rapidly this month, noted in a new report that those conditions “have come to fruition.” Beck’s 2005 calendar year price forecast remains unchanged, at $6.40/MMBtu, but its chief forecaster warned that continued adverse conditions, especially a hurricane threat during Bidweek, could cause prices to go as high as $12 in September.

As Ivan pounded the Gulf Coast last week, playing havoc with both the electrical and natural gas infrastructures, FERC Chairman Patrick Wood said the agency would give regulated energy companies more time to report infractions of the Commission’s standards of conduct that may occur during their efforts to maintain system reliability.

Continuing the downhill slide from where the now-expired July contract left off on Monday, the August natural gas futures contract sloughed off another 8.3 cents on Tuesday to close at $6.118.

With two hurricanes moving away from the Gulf of Mexico and influences from weather and storage still as negative as they were prior to the weekend, it was natural for most prices to be softening Monday. The exceptions to declining numbers were chiefly in the rebounding West and at Northeast citygates.

Just as what could be remembered as one of the most intensehurricanes ever to make landfall on U.S. soil gradually turned tothe north and away from production assets in the Gulf of Mexico,natural gas futures turned south yesterday as traders priced stormconcerns out of the market. After gapping lower to open at $2.69the October contract never looked back, tumbling 14.5 cents on theday to finish at $2.636.