Hope

Tax reform is taking front seat to electricity reform in Mexico, and officials say that hope is fading to change the country’s state-run power sector until the next session of congress convenes in September. The current congress adjourns April 30.

While winter does not officially conclude for another threeweeks, it was laid to rest yesterday in the gas pit at Nymex as theMarch contract filtered lower in a long liquidation sell-off duringits last hour of trading. The March contract expired at $4.998,down 13.3 cents on the session and more than $1.10 less than whereit was when it became prompt month back on Jan. 29.

After careening almost $1.50 lower early last week, bulls atNymex fought back Thursday and Friday as traders glommed on to somemodestly constructive technical and fundamental factors. When allthe dust had cleared and the orders were tabulated, the numbersspeak for themselves. The February contract lost 13% of its value,tumbling 96.3 cents lower, to go off the board at $6.293 Monday.After following in February’s footsteps Tuesday and Wednesday, thenew prompt month, March, erupted $1.036 higher to close the week at$6.743.

“Hope” was the operative four-letter word in California last week if you had anything to do with the energy industry or government as Friday saw the previous day’s specter of rolling blackouts from razor-thin electricity reserves ease.

After gapping lower on the opening bell, natural gas futuressifted lower Friday as traders continued the sell-off that begantwo and a half weeks ago. With Friday’s $4.541 settlement, theNovember contract concluded its tenure as prompt month on adecidedly negative note, down 12.3 cents on the day and $1.24 offits Oct. 12 high-water mark.

FERC’s marketing affiliate rule, which hinges on the hope thatpipeline owners will police themselves, has been about as effectiveas a wolf guarding a henhouse, says a Washington D.C. lawyer whorepresents producers and independent marketers. Because ofescalating abuses in the market, he believes overhauling Order 497should be the first priority of the Commission in its post-Order637 dialogue with the natural gas industry.

Growing weary of waiting, BP Amoco and Atlantic Richfield Co. hope to step up the pace of their ongoing merger procedures by restarting the required 20-day notice period, suspended Nov. 2, at the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The companies concede the FTC has concerns about their pairing, but the merger partners said they don’t agree with the issues raised by the commission.

Buoyed by a late short-covering rally natural gas futuresstruggled back up to just below unchanged yesterday as traderschose to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of freshstorage data. The closing up-tick was the only feature bulls couldstomach in a market preoccupied by continued mild weather acrossmuch of the country. The February contract finished down 0.8 centsat $2.168 following a session that saw prices match Tuesday’s $2.20high but plumb a half-cent below Tuesday’s $2.13 low.

The New York Mercantile Exchange’s electricity futures contractsfailed to take off for a number of reasons but the market is worseoff because of their failure, according to Jack Cogen, president ofNew York City-based NatSource.