Holiday

Undeterred by the three-day holiday weekend break but bolstered by news that government production figures could be revised significantly downward, natural gas futures bulls on Monday managed to hold on to last Thursday’s momentum as the May contract gained another 19.1 cents to close the regular session at $4.277.

Undeterred by the three-day holiday weekend break but bolstered by news that government production figures could be revised significantly downward, natural gas futures bulls on Monday managed to hold on to last Thursday’s momentum as the May contract gained another 19.1 cents to close the regular session at $4.277.

As expected, the post-holiday rally in cash prices was unable to sustain itself any longer in the face of receding weather-based demand and weakening futures support. Quotes fell at a large majority of points Thursday, although generally by small amounts. A few flat to a little less than a nickel higher locations resulted in mixed price movement overall.

October natural gas futures continued to probe upside resistance after the long holiday weekend, but for at least one market observer, the move higher “lacked enthusiasm.” The front-month contract climbed 7.9 cents Tuesday to close at $2.807.

Coming off the holiday weekend, some not-often-seen weakness in crude futures and natural gas futures price resistance at $12 teamed to push June natural gas lower on Tuesday, one day ahead of the contract’s expiration. The prompt-month contract recorded a high of $12.034 just after noon EDT, which triggered a round of selling that left June to finish the day’s regular session at $11.801, down 5.6 cents from Friday’s close.

Natural gas bulls kept the heat on futures prices on Friday as the June contract pushed higher ahead of the holiday weekend to close at $11.857, up 16 cents from Thursday’s finish and 76.3 cents higher than the previous week’s close. With an $11.864 high on the day, the prompt-month contract set a new high mark for the up move that began back in August 2007.

Coming off the holiday weekend, traders who once thought last week’s technical weakness solidified a bearish case are now being forced to rethink their outlook. April natural gas futures on Monday traded as high as $9.400 before settling the day at $9.329, up 26.4 cents from last Thursday’s close.

Capping off a topsy-turvy holiday-shortened week of natural gas futures trading, the April contract attempted to work lower Thursday morning before being propped up by a fairly supportive 85 Bcf storage withdrawal report. The prompt-month contract put in a low of $8.700 before settling at the $9.065 high on the day, up 4.1 cents from Wednesday, but 81.3 cents lower than the previous week’s finish.

Natural gas futures rose modestly in light, noncommittal post-holiday trading Wednesday. Traders noted that it was unusually quiet for an options expiration, and in spite of bearish fundamentals no one was willing to aggressively sell the market for fear of getting caught on the wrong side of a weather-driven price advance. Longer-term traders hint at a market bottom.