Next-day prices at East and Northeast points screamed higher Tuesday, some by as much as $13, as temperatures dipped well below freezing. Overall, the market averaged a 97-cent gain. If the weather-driven gains in New England and Mid-Atlantic points are factored out, however, cash prices rose by just 6 cents.
Articles from Freezing
Several Northeast trading locations, mostly in New England, fell Monday despite freezing-or-less overnight lows forecast to persist into Tuesday. However, the rest of the market recorded substantive increases — nearly all in double digits — due to winter-like cold weather lingering into early spring, April futures strength on the preceding Friday and the return of industrial load from its normal weekend decline also contributed to overall upticks.
Wednesday forecasts of freezing or subfreezing lows stretching from the Northeast through the Upper Midwest and Plains into the Rockies and Western Canada, accompanied by snow in several areas, extended the cash price rally that had begun last Friday into its third trading day Tuesday.
With low temperatures around freezing or less due Tuesday across a broad swath of territory stretching from the Northeast through parts of the Midwest, Midcontinent and Upper Plains into the Rockies and including much of Canada, prices recorded gains that were mostly in single digits at a large majority of points Monday.
With freezing temperatures forecast for northern Florida Monday night, Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) notified market-area customers that it was issuing an Overage Alert Day for Monday with a 15% tolerance on negative daily imbalances. Noting that on Nov. 1 FGT had begun maintenance on the Citronelle FGT and Citronelle Transco interconnects between FGT Stations 10 and 11, FGT now expects to finish the work on Jan. 31; until then zero volumes are being scheduled at the interconnects. Total operational capacity there is 400,000 MMBtu/d, but during normal operations up to slightly above 300,000 MMBtu/d is scheduled. See the bulletin board for a list of affected area points.
Following up on a day-earlier warning, Florida Gas Transmission declared an Overage Alert Day Wednesday, saying below-freezing temperatures were forecast in its Florida market area in the next two nights. The tolerance for negative daily imbalances was set at 20%.
The winter weather machine was starting to rev up its engines again, with forecasts of lows around freezing or colder extending into most of the South, and the spot market responded with small to moderate increases at a large majority of points Tuesday. The return of industrial load from its greater-than-usual declines over a holiday weekend and Friday’s 7.2-cent uptick by March futures also played supportive roles.