Forces

The trend toward higher natural gas prices in recent years has largely been due to market forces and weather disruptions, namely Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina and Rita in 2004 and 2005, an official with the Governmental Accountability Office (GAO) told a Senate panel that is investigating price volatility in the natural gas market.

With gas storage levels in the United States and Canada well above historical averages and possibly approaching record highs, there will be increasing pressure over the next few weeks for gas prices to come tumbling down. Just how long they will remain down, however, probably depends on the weather and the price of crude oil, which could go to the moon based on action over the last few days, analysts say.

The consensus Tuesday had seemed to be that a new cash price rally was unlikely this week, if not through the end of the month, because of a trio of bearish influences: mild weather in most regions, great comfort with current storage levels, and the lack of any tropical storm activity that could possibly disrupt offshore production.

Shell Exploration & Production Co. said Tuesday that it will have to shut down its Mars tension leg platform again for about two weeks starting Nov. 4 to permanently replace flexjoints on its Mississippi Canyon oil and natural gas pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico.

While falling short of the previous July high of $6.805 set on May 25, the July natural gas futures contract put theories that the rally was over on hold, settling up 23.9 cents on the day to close at $6.681.

Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source in the world and gas demand is projected to grow by 2.4% per year through 2020 as its share of worldwide energy use shoots up to 25% of the total from its current level of about 20%, said Scott Nauman, gas marketing manager for the Americas at ExxonMobil.

Natural gas’ share of worldwide energy use will shoot up to 25% from its current level of about 20%, said Scott Nauman, gas marketing manager for the Americas at ExxonMobil, predicting that oil and natural gas will continue for the next 50 years to be the dominant fuels, with gas’ proportion growing as its annual growth rate outstrips both oil and coal.

After testing the $6 resistance level on Monday, May natural gas futures raised the white flag early on Tuesday, retreating 22.1 cents to close at $5.788 on heavy volume, with 92,904 contracts changing hands.

TransCanada Corp. lost its appeal of the National Energy Board’s (NEB) “Fair Return” decision (RH-R-1-2002), which turned a deaf ear to the pipeline’s concerns about competition and an inadequate rate of return given its market risks.