Firmly

As natural gas traders put 2007 firmly in their rearview mirrors, the focus now surrounds what exactly might be in store for prices in 2008. With traders widely agreeing that the days of $2-3/MMBtu are long gone, whether 2008 sees $5-6/MMBtu gas or $7-9/MMBtu gas will be largely influenced by the weather picture and whether increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes find their way to North America’s shores.

Just when it looked like $10/Mcf gas was firmly in the rear view mirror, May natural gas futures revisited the price level Monday as near-term weather forecasts are looking a little cooler than first thought. The prompt-month contract shot to a high of $10.190 before closing out the regular session at $10.101, up 30.1 cents from Friday’s close.

With Thursday’s record storage report withdrawal firmly in the rear-view mirror and a significant warm-up in the East looming for much of February, March natural gas futures went in search of lower prices Friday in a large way. The prompt-month contract put in a low of $7.720 before settling the day at $7.740, down 33.4 cents from Thursday’s close and 21.4 cents lower than the previous Friday’s finish.

As natural gas traders put 2007 firmly in their rear view mirrors, the focus now surrounds what exactly might be in store for prices in 2008. With traders widely agreeing that the days of $2-3/MMBtu are long gone, whether 2008 sees $5-6/MMBtu gas or $7-9/MMBtu gas will be largely influenced by the weather picture and whether increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes find their way to North America’s shores.

As natural gas traders put 2007 firmly in their rearview mirrors, the focus now surrounds what exactly might be in store for prices in 2008. With traders widely agreeing that the days of $2-3/MMBtu are long gone, whether 2008 sees $5-6/MMBtu gas or $7-9/MMBtu gas will be largely influenced by the weather picture and whether increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes find their way to North America’s shores.

With rapid payout and strong cash flow, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has emerged as the “epicenter” of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, accounting for half of the top 10 deals involving U.S.-based exploration and production (E&P) companies year-to-date, Raymond James analysts wrote in their latest “Stat of the Week.” Overall, M&A activity within the oil and gas sector continues to heat up, with more than $18 billion in announcements involving U.S.-based E&Ps so far this year.

Coming in firmly below industry projections, the 53 Bcf weekly storage injection reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Thursday for the week ended April 28 caught traders off guard and triggered an early futures rally. June natural gas hit a high of $6.990 late in the session before settling at $6.906, up an even 30 cents on the day.

Regardless of the recent major declines in gas prices, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) remains firmly in the natural gas bulls’ camp, predicting that spot Henry Hub gas prices, which averaged $9.00/Mcf in 2005 will average $11.25/Mcf ($10.92/MMBtu) in the first quarter of 2006 and $9.80/Mcf for the year. Last month, EIA’s forecast was $11.48 for the first quarter and $9.30 for the year. Henry Hub prices currently are about $8.60/MMBtu ($8.35/Mcf).

With Hurricane Wilma firmly in the rear view mirror with no harm to Gulf of Mexico oil and gas infrastructure, November natural gas on Monday failed to push lower, leading some to believe the premium built into the market might already have been taken out. The prompt month ended up settling at $13.004, 13.2 cents higher on the day.