Fairly

Apparently in acknowledgment that weather-based load is fairly modest outside the West, prices fell (mostly by small amounts) at a majority of points Thursday. High heat levels west and south of the Rockies resulted in San Juan Basin spikes and more moderate gains in some other western locations.

What had already been a fairly strong cash market this week got even stronger Wednesday as prices increased at all points. Tuesday’s futures gain of 8.8 cents added a bit of extra support to an ongoing shift from relatively mild weather in most of the East to heating load-boosting temperatures.

Coming off of a fairly strong natural gas futures session on Monday and faced with widespread heat across the United States, the cash market posted healthy gains Tuesday that ranged from about a dime to over 50 cents. However, cash market gains might be a short-term phenomenon.

Despite still having a fairly plentiful amount of cooling load outside the Northeast, Pacific Northwest and California coast, cash prices fell at most points Thursday. They succumbed to a 7.4-cent retreat by July futures a day earlier and the fact that only the South, desert Southwest and parts of inland California are due to see temperatures go above the 80s Friday.

Mixed price movement returned to the spot market Monday, with gains outweighing losses. Cooling load remained fairly strong across the South and Southwest but was spotty in more northerly market areas. The return of industrial demand from its usual weekend layoff supported cash prices, but the 16.2-cent drop by July futures on Friday provided negative guidance.

After trading in a fairly wide range from $7.480 to $7.830, March natural gas futures went off the board with a bang on Monday at $7.547, down 20.8 cents from Friday’s close. The April contract, which now assumes the front-month position, was tamer in its action by dropping 10.3 cents to finish the day at $7.703.

Trading within a fairly slim 25-cent range, March natural gas futures on Wednesday pushed 6.1 cents higher to close at $7.646 as traders eyed the potential for yet another withdrawal report exceeding 200 Bcf when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases storage data for the week ended Feb. 16 on Thursday morning.

Despite a weather map dominated by fairly moderate conditions for mid-December, cash gas was finding enough heating load in northern market areas to keep prices rising substantively at most points Wednesday.

The cash market rang up double-digit losses across the board Tuesday. Moderating weather trends in the South and West, fairly benign early-December conditions in the Northeast, and a 61.6-cent futures plunge the day before kept prices in free-fall.