Factored

February natural gas futures staged a double-digit advance Wednesday as traders factored in incrementally colder forecasts in the 11- to 15-day period shown by popular weather models. At the close February futures rose 13.6 cents to $4.561 and March added 13.0 cents to $4.576. February crude oil fell 52 cents to $90.86/Bbl.

February natural gas futures fell Tuesday as traders factored in a moderate weakening of forecasts calling for near-term cold. Present thinking is that this week’s inventory report is likely to show a huge withdrawal, upwards of 250 Bcf, and any moderation in the weather outlook was thus seen as a reason to temper bullishness. At the close February futures shed 5.5 cents to $4.425 and March eased 4.4 cents to $4.446. February crude oil lost 16 cents to $91.38/bbl.

ConocoPhillips has shut in some of its dry gas production in North America, but in the liquids-rich Eagle Ford Shale, it’s full steam ahead.

With Hurricane Ivan’s initial impact on production already factored into the market, and it being too soon to assess damage to Gulf infrastructure, October natural gas futures resumed their pre-Ivan path lower on Wednesday.

Soothsayers are having a tough time coming up with a solid price forecast for this winter and next year because of the uncertainty over a potential war with Iraq and the mixed views about winter weather and gas supply.

Soothsayers are having a tough time coming up with a solid price forecast for this winter and next year because of the uncertainty over a potential war with Iraq and the mixed views about winter weather and gas supply.

True to form, Wednesday in the natural gas pit at Nymex had itsshare of price volatility as traders factored the latest storagedata into the market. After a relatively quiet morning, the Octobercontract exploded higher to $5.38 and then tumbled lower to $5.26between 2:00 and 2:10 p.m. As it turned out, the prices produced inthat small trading window held as the prompt month’s daily range.October finished at $5.318, down 4.5 cents for the session.