Exceptions

Flat to about 20 cents lower at five Northeast market locations and NOVA Inventory Transfer (NIT) constituted the only exceptions to a firming cash market Tuesday. Cash prices had a supportive prior-day increase of 11.2 cents by February futures, but the chief reason for Tuesday’s gains at all other points was what the Weather 2000 consulting firm called the “most frigid arctic air yet of [the] season” currently pouring into the central U.S. from Canada.

Prices rose at nearly all points Tuesday as a cold snap continued in much of North America. The exceptions were major retreats at four Northeast citygates following regional spikes the day before.

A couple of flat points and one in the Midcontinent that rose about a nickel constituted the only exceptions to a continuation of falling cash prices in Wednesday’s launch of the March aftermarket. Moderate to cool weather forecasts for many areas and prior-day futures weakness were responsible for the overriding softness.

There were exceptions to the rule in both regions Monday, but for the most part prices increased in the West and softened in the East. The western market was seeing a resurgence of cooling load in the desert Southwest (Phoenix is expected to be just under 100 degrees Tuesday), while its eastern counterpart continued to labor under the same negative influences that had caused major declines in the previous week.

A gain of nearly a dime at Transco Station 30 and a flat Florida citygate were the only exceptions to prices continuing to fall Friday. The decline of industrial load that accompanies a weekend was added to the established list of bearish market influences — moderate to cool weather in almost every area, a prior-day screen drop, increasingly negative storage issues and a benign (so far) hurricane season for Gulf of Mexico production.

Prices continued to fall at nearly all points Tuesday, but the declines were considerably smaller than Monday’s, and the exceptions were a flat Sumas and a small gain of about a nickel at Texas Eastern-East Texas. The increasing likelihood that Tropical Storm Ernesto will avoid the Gulf of Mexico production area, massive screen weakness on the day before and a continued dearth of substantive cooling load outside the South and Southwest were cited as factors in the softness.

Through Thursday of last week there were at least a few exceptions to general price movement, but on Friday all points were united in one direction: down by double-digit amounts.

As a producer had predicted Thursday, most weekend prices stayed fairly close to flat Friday in a mixed market. The conspicuous exceptions were Northeast citygates, which all rose by more than 30 cents as a Nor’easter bore down on the region.

There were some exceptions of flat to slightly higher prices Thursday, but a large majority of the cash market was moving lower. Virtually all points are expected to fall Friday under the weight of a hefty storage injection, a major screen plunge Thursday prompted by the storage report, generally moderate weather, and the usual weekend drop in industrial load.