The August aftermarket began Monday with prices down a dime ormore from the last day of July in most cases, except for slightgains at a few western points. In comparison to where they expectedAugust indexes to be, several sources said swing gas for today wasflat in general but slightly lower at some eastern points.
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Rally Loses Some Steam; July Drops a Dime
The major rally that lifted the July contract 35.5 cents to$4.398 on Monday, gave way following some selling pressure earlyTuesday morning. After reaching a high of $4.505, July tumbled 26cents to a low of $4.245, and ended the day down 10.4 cents to$4.294. Volume was heavier than on Monday with 100,223 contractschanging hands.
Screen, Storage, Western Chill Drive Mild Rebound
Nearly all markets ranged from flat to just over a dime higherin post-weekend trading Monday, with most increases on either sideof a nickel. The stronger rises tended to occur mainly at westernpoints, while most of the very mild softness was at Northeastcitygates.
Technical Sell-Off Takes a Dime Out of Futures
Following a three-day, 30-cent price rally, the natural gasmarket cooled its heels yesterday as traders took profits amidtechnically oversold conditions and ahead of fresh storage data.That sell-off sent the January contract tumbling 9.9 cents lowerthroughout the session yesterday. By virtue of trading above, thenbelow Tuesday’s range it completed an outside-down day on the dailycharts to settle at $2.486.
Running of the Cash Bulls Expected to Continue
Much like the day before, cash prices rose by a dime or moreTuesday almost purely on weather fundamentals. Unlike the daybefore, western points failed to lag behind the overall marketlargely due to some supply shortness. The result was generallytight basis all around, ranging from the Rockies in the $2.30sthrough the Gulf Coast and Midcontinent in the $2.40s and Midwestcitygates in the $2.50s to Appalachia and California in the $2.60s.Only Northeast citygates in the $2.80s and $2.90s put muchappreciable difference between themselves and the rest of themarket.
Futures Slow to Recover from Storage Figures
After plunging almost a dime lower in response to alarger-than-expected storage injection Wednesday afternoon, thefutures market shuffled sideways yesterday in ahurricane-abbreviated trading session. Traders were unable to gleanmuch fundamentally positive out of a natural gas market that isfaced with mild temperatures and little or no hurricane activity inthe wake of Floyd. The October contract finished at $2.546, down8.2-cents from Wednesday’s close.
Short-Covering, Hurricane-Hype Buoy Futures
After slipping more than a dime Thursday, the futures marketcontinued lower Friday morning as traders continued the process oflightening their long positions. The July contract carved out a$2.325 low before 11 AM. That, however, was about all the sellingpressure the market would tolerate and scaled down trade buyinglifted the market throughout the rest of the day. July finished at$2.378, up 2.3 cents. Estimated volume was light, with only 45,070contracts changing hands.
Electric Load Pushes Cash Market Significantly Higher
Increases of more than a dime were the norm Monday as 80-90degree temperatures throughout the eastern half of the country andthe ensuing electric generation load caused gas prices at allpoints to rise substantially. New York Citygate led the way withprices increasing from the low $2.50s on Friday to the mid $2.70syesterday. The need for Northeast electric generation was socritical yesterday that the New England ISO issued a “powerwarning” and asked consumers to voluntarily curb power use.
Bearish Results do not Hinder Bullish Outlook
Normalizing weather caused cash prices at most points to drop afew cents to nearly a dime yesterday with the Chicago pointsaccruing the largest losses, but the downturn failed to abatemarketers’ optimism, which was buoyed by a new six- to 10-dayforecast calling for below-normal temperatures for a large portionof the nation.
Overall Gains Are Largest in Western Markets
Increases of about a dime or more were common in the cash marketMonday. The upticks tended to be larger in the West, approaching 20cents in the California market and on some Rockies pipes. There wassome fundamental validation of Western firmness as the region wasunseasonably cool, especially in the Pacific Northwest, wheretemperatures were colder than in Alberta, a Calgary source said.