Digits

Even with forecasts of Friday lows in the teens and single digits in the Rockies and northern third of the U.S. and sinking to sub-zero levels in Western Canada and some locations immediately south of the entire Canadian border, prices fell at a large majority of points Thursday. The cash market also felt negative pressure from the previous day’s 13.2-cent decline by January futures.

Prices skyrocketed to as high as $19.50/MMBtu Wednesday in the Northeast as low temperatures ranging from single digits to the 20s were forecast to keep the region chilled out Thursday. But with warming trends due in the South and Midwest while the West essentially maintains its status quo of seasonably cold to mild conditions, the market outside the Northeast saw mixed price movement that was mostly close to flat and biased toward the downside.

Looking very similar to a carbon copy of the previous day’s market, prices fell at a large majority of points (most often by double digits) Tuesday, with the firming exceptions occurring at a few Rockies points. The same influences remained in play: a lack of substantive cooling load for gas in many areas and a continuing slide by August futures.

Prices fell by double digits (and in one case by more than a dollar) throughout the cash market Monday except in the Rockies. Traders continued to find below-normal cooling load for midsummer in most locations and Friday’s August futures descent grew even steeper Monday.

As a trader had predicted, Monday’s 18.1-cent gain by May futures proved sufficient to boost nearly all of the cash market by double digits Tuesday. Physical gas got some extra support from weather fundamentals with colder temperatures returning to the Midwest and Northeast.

Forecasts of freezing highs Friday failed to keep Northeast citygates from measuring their declines in triple digits as they led across the board price softening Thursday. With spring-like conditions already established in the South and nonmountainous sections of the West, and a still-chilly Midwest continuing a warming trend, light heating load was the chief instigator of Thursday’s drops.

Virtually all points were up strongly Tuesday on prospects of a northern cold snap continuing for a while longer. Most of the gains were in double digits, but quite a few points — primarily in the Northeast — rose by dollar-plus amounts.

Prices plunged across the board Friday, with nearly all points recording their losses in three digits. Some Gulf Coast and Midcontinent production area points were seeing low-end quotes slip below $6, and Northwest-South of Green River traded as low as $4.95.

Prices were up across the board Thursday, with a solid majority of gains in double digits. Hotter weather trends in the Midwest and South were due to push highs into the 80s and 90s across most of both regions Friday, causing them to join the already sizzling West as sources of rising power generation load.