Difference

Having gotten a negative signal from prior-day futures trading and not yet seeing enough air conditioning load to make a difference, cash prices fell across the board Thursday.

Friday’s October aftermarket-ending trading was much like that of the day before: large price drops across the board. The difference was that declines got much larger at nearly all points. Moderating weather trends, a bearish storage report, prior-day screen weakness and the usual weekend drop in industrial load were cited as factors in the softness.

Hoping last week’s transmission emergency that resulted in isolated rolling blackouts will make a difference, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger Wednesday reintroduced his plan to reorganize the state’s scattered energy functions into one cabinet-level Energy Department.

Adequate natural gas storage is key to ensure competitive markets in the future, and new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal development “could make a big difference,” a FERC official said Wednesday. However, William Hederman, director of the Office of Market Oversight and Investigations, predicted that new LNG terminals “won’t be built in the big places” like California and the Northeast unless public perceptions change.

Adequate natural gas storage is key to ensure competitive markets in the future, and new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal development “could make a big difference,” a FERC official said Wednesday. However, William Hederman, director of the Office of Market Oversight and Investigations, predicted that new LNG terminals “won’t be built in the big places” like California and the Northeast unless public perceptions change.

An increase in residential customers may have spelled the difference between the 3.5 Bcf of gas used by Xcel Energy’s Colorado customers over the recent four-day Thanksgiving weekend, compared to 3 Bcf for the holiday weekend a year ago. Temperatures were nearly the same, with an average daily temperature of 30.5 degrees Fahrenheit this year compared to an average daily temperature of 31 degrees last year. “We had about 39,000 more customers in September 2004 than we had in September 2003,” the last month for which comparative figures are available, according to Xcel spokesman Mark Stutz. In September 2003, Xcel had 1,078,009 customers, compared to the recent month’s 1,117,851. Although Xcel is seeing “modest” customer growth in its Front Range territory, most of the increase is coming in its western mountain resort area where new natural gas service is now available and is replacing electric heating. Stutz said the trend is not confined to Xcel. “All the utilities in the mountain area are seeing the switch from electric and propane to natural gas.”

An increase in residential customers may have spelled the difference between the 3.5 Bcf of gas used by Xcel Energy’s Colorado customers over the recent four-day Thanksgiving weekend, compared to 3 Bcf for the holiday weekend a year ago. Temperatures were nearly the same, with an average daily temperature of 30.5 degrees Fahrenheit this year compared to an average daily temperature of 31 degrees last year. “We had about 39,000 more customers in September 2004 than we had in September 2003,” the last month for which comparative figures are available, according to Xcel spokesman Mark Stutz. In September 2003, Xcel had 1,078,009 customers, compared to the recent month’s 1,117,851. Although Xcel is seeing “modest” customer growth in its Front Range territory, most of the increase is coming in its western mountain resort area where new natural gas service is now available and is replacing electric heating. Stutz said the trend is not confined to Xcel. “All the utilities in the mountain area are seeing the switch from electric and propane to natural gas.”

The construction of just two to three new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, along with the planned expansions of the existing import facilities in the United States, would be enough to provide a “significant incremental addition in gas supply” over the next few years, said an official with the American Gas Association (AGA) last Wednesday.

The cold north wind certainly helped blow out the price difference, or basis, this winter between the Gulf Coast producing region spot price points and the northeastern gas market, but pipeline capacity constraints to the market region have been known for several years. Unfortunately, there are few projects available that can provide any relief in the near term, according to consultants at Arlington, VA-based Energy and Environmental Analysis Inc. (EEA).