Depress

Natural gas price fundamentals are “rather bearish” going into winter, and the continued turmoil in the financial markets likely will depress prices through 2009, said Barclays Capital energy analysts.

Natural gas price fundamentals are “rather bearish” going into winter, and the continued turmoil in the financial markets likely will depress prices in the near term, said Barclays Capital energy analysts. Barclays reduced its U.S. gas price forecasts through 2009.

Echoing forecasts of some — but not all — of his peers, energy analyst John Gerdes said Friday high natural gas storage levels will depress prices below $6/MMBtu for the next several months, but before the end of the year, prices should rebound to around $7.25.

Post-weekend prices bowed to weaker weather fundamentals in recording mostly moderate losses, from a mere couple of pennies to a little more than 15 cents Monday (a couple of flat to slightly higher points managed to creep into the overall mix). A solid majority of declines were in single digits.

Eastern prices sank between a nickel and about a quarter Monday amid forecasts of unseasonably mild weather continuing into early November. Western losses tended to be small at a nickel or less and were mixed with upticks at several points as the region experienced both chilly weather from the Rockies through the Pacific Northwest and hot temperatures in California and the desert Southwest.

The weekend market was divided along geographical lines Friday.Price increases tended to range from about a nickel to a littlemore than a dime at eastern points, but high-linepack OFOs by themajor California distributors (see Tranportation Notes) served tokeep western numbers flat to down more than 30 cents at thePG&E citygate.

Adding to losses sustained in the Monday evening Access tradingsession, gas futures continued lower yesterday in sympathy withfree falling physical prices and in expectation of a bearishstorage report today. After gapping a hefty 7 cents lower to openat $2.44 the spot month October sifted lower throughout the sessionto close down 9.2 cents at $2.427. Heavy estimated volume of 89,223served to authenticate the move lower.

Weekend prices drifted lower by varying degrees Friday, rangingfrom barely a penny down on a couple of Gulf Coast pipes todouble-digit decreases throughout much of the West. A flat screenprovided no cash guidance, traders said, so it was primarily milderweather plus the typical drop in weekend load that promptedmoderate declines of about a nickel or less at most eastern points.

The April aftermarket was off to a very strong beginning inswing deals done Wednesday. Virtually every point was trading abovebidweek levels and in some cases much higher. For example, a buyerwho paid in the mid $1.70s for April baseload at the SouthernCalifornia border reported a $1.90-95 swing range. Most sourcesagreed that the incremental price strength derived almost entirelyfrom “following the screen” upward.