Data

Armed with a “smoking gun” discovered in just-released data, theCalifornia Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has launched a freshoffensive against El Paso Natural Gas’ 1.22 Bcf/d transportationcontract arrangement with affiliate El Paso Merchant Energy.

After pushing prices some 60 cents higher over the past threeweeks, traders were faced with one question when they came backinto work following the holiday weekend: When will October futuresbreach the $5.00 level?

As if crashing oil prices, fresh weather forecasts and the release of storage data were not enough Wednesday, the natural gas futures market was rocked again Thursday by a report of a pipeline rupture in the Gulf of Mexico (see related story this issue). Although the accident has since been dubbed a non-event, it produced a dramatic, if brief, spike in prices as commercial traders loaded up on contracts only to dump them just minutes later.

Building on modest gains achieved yesterday morning, the futuresmarket rocketed more than 20 cents higher Wednesday afternoon uponthe release of yet another bullish storage report. Finishing 27.1cents stronger at $4.378, the prompt July contract retraced morethan half of its Monday price slide yesterday and now stands closerto the upper limit of its $3.80-$4.60 trading range.

Fueled by constructive storage data and higher Access andover-the-counter prices, natural gas futures continued higheryesterday, as traders continue to exhibit a seemingly insatiableappetite for long positions. The June contract advanced 16.3 centsto close at $4.236.

Looking like the readout on an EKG machine gone mad, natural gasfutures soared, dipped then rallied again yesterday as tradersdealt with a bevy of somewhat contradictory but certainly confusingpieces of fundamental news. With Wednesday’s 25.9-cent advance and$4.073 settle, the June contract climbed into the rarified air of$4.05-plus prices, which have been achieved only in seven othertrading sessions during the 10-year history of natural gas futures.

In response to customer requests, Transco has enhanced the LEADreports available in TRANSIT to show best available allocated databased upon a one-day lag for all shippers rather than a two-day lagas has been shown in the past.

After etching out a wide, 20-cent trading range Monday andTuesday, natural gas futures traded sideways yesterday in a rare,low volume and low volatility trading session. Little in the way offresh news was seen to nudge prices in either direction, leavingthe November contract to slip 2.9-cents to $2.978 in pre-AGA profittaking. Estimated volume was an extremely-light 53,060 contracts.

Deep-water gas production reached 560 MMcf/d in 1998 from only381 MMcf/d the year prior, a 47% increase, according to datareleased yesterday by the Mineral Management Service (MMS). Another311.5 MMcf/d of deep-water gas production is expected to come online this year.