The May Nymex contract continued its strong charge higher onThursday, reaching a high of $2.605 before ultimately settling up6.1 cents at $2.562. More impressive than the increase, however,was the estimated volume figure. Coming on the heels of Wednesday’shigh trade volume, Thursday saw over 100,000 contracts tradinghands. This leaves little doubt speculators played a role in May’srise yesterday. Even though current Henry Hub prices are 15-20cents lower than that, the current heat wave is waking people up tothe possibility of extreme air conditioning demand this summer, ananalyst told GPI. “The supply/demand balance has been so tight forso long, that his extra demand is highlighting potential problemsthis summer. There are already problems with coal delivery inTexas, and if that continues into the summer, watch out,” he said.
Contract
Articles from Contract
Bullish Futures Momentum Runs Out of Steam
The recent surge in natural gas futures prices became so greaton Monday that the spot April contract came within 4 cents ofreaching its all-time high trade of $2.460. However, speculatorswere quick to “pounce on a selling opportunity” at that price, theresult of which left April up just 0.8 cents for the day at $2.351.Total volume was estimated at 88,053 contracts.
April Futures Are Stuck In Their Teens
The April Nymex contract lost yet another chance to break out ofits recent trading range by falling 3.8-cents to settle Thursday at$2.134. “If April were ever going to break out of its tradingrange, perhaps today was the day,” a trader told GPI. “April brokeabove major resistance at $2.19, and forecasts are calling foranother potential cold front next week. Yet April fell hard afterreaching a high of $2.205. That tells me there is no wayspeculators are buying into the fact that fundamentals warrant ahigher move. It also shows they are wary of initiating fresh longpositions,” he said.
Futures Rally in Response to Cash Gains
For the third day in a row the April Futures contract tested butwas unable to break through the $2.185 resistance level, stoppingshort at $2.172 Wednesday. April opened higher in sympathy withHenry Hub cash market prices, which eked out a couple-cent gain onthe day, but it was limited to a 4-cent trading range with arelatively light 31,462 contracts changing hands.
Futures Traders Continue To Be In a Bearish Mood
The April Nymex contract made it five consecutive down days onFriday by virtue of its 1.2 cent loss to $2.129. Several tradersagreed Friday’s price action was a continuation of the 8.7 centdecline turned in on Thursday, coupled with some liquidation aheadof the weekend.
Volatility Returns to The Nymex Trading Pit
The April Nymex contract finally broke out of its recent tradingrange by falling a relatively large 8.7 cents to $2.141 onThursday. “Today was massive long liquidation by funds, coupledwith weaker cash prices,” a broker told NGI. “The market droppedbelow the magic 40-day moving average (at $2.205), and fell belowtrendline support at $2.19. Both those things triggered a series ofstop loss orders, which helped propel April even lower. April lookspretty negative on the charts. There was a lot of technical damagetoday. The market will most likely want to continue to test thedown side,” he said.
Futures Prices Fall, But Traders Look For Rebound
The April Nymex contract took a 5.1 cent hit to $2.241 onTuesday, as speculators continued to sell positions following thespot month’s inability to break above the $2.355 resistance levelon Monday, a source told GPI. Total volume was estimated at 41,490contracts.
April Futures Follow March Cash Prices Lower
The April Nymex contract got off to a fast start Thursday byopening at $2.32 and quickly moving to $2.34. However, strongtechnical selling kicked in at that point, so much so that Aprilslid back to settle the day down 3.4 cents at $2.284.
February, March Prices Up; Nymex Delay Cramps Action
A delayed and abridged trading windup in the March futures contract(see details in futures and news stories) Wednesday put a large crimpin the progress of bidweek activity, sources told Daily GPI. While tosome it was just an annoying wait, others complained of having totrade in the dark. A producer said the cash market had been renderedvery quiet by the phone outages that caused Nymex to shut down theexchange temporarily. “For a while we didn’t even know whether ourorders were filled,” he said. “It’s hard to take a cash position ifyou are unsure where your hedge lies.”
