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Offering no respite from the current tightness in the natural gas market and the off-the-chart high prices, the United States could be in for a “Polar Coaster” this winter, according to the 2006 Farmers’ Almanac.

After averaging a hefty 91 Bcf a week in storage injections since April, the natural gas market fell sharply off that pace last week with a 53 Bcf refill, prompting some market observers to rethink how much the blackouts affected gas demand. Using that bullish news as an updraft, the October futures contract soared immediately to $5.08 following the 10:30 a.m. EDT report.

With its intraday bar chart looking like the EKG of a cardiac arrest patient who didn’t make it, the natural gas futures market followed Thursday’s heart-stopping price drop with flat-line trading activity Friday. On its first day as prompt month at Nymex, the August contract closed 4.8 cents lower at $5.362. At 47,013, estimated volume was extremely light.

Since becoming the prompt contract a month ago the February natural gas futures contract has exhibited a strong tendency to rebound following each and every price dip. That was again perfectly demonstrated Tuesday on the month’s penultimate trading day as market-on-close buying lifted the contract off its late afternoon low at $5.33. February closed at $5.444, up 4.8 cents for the session and 11.4 cents off its low notched just 15 minutes earlier.

After gapping higher at the opening bell and quickly filling in a gap from the daily bar chart, natural gas futures shifted lower Wednesday as traders positioned themselves ahead of what could be another bearish storage report this morning. Although the price direction was down most of the day Wednesday, the absence of strong selling allowed the market to escape the session with a modest gain. February finished at $5.161, up 3.4 cents for the day. Volume was moderate, with an estimated 86,303 contracts changing hands.

Although certain pockets of the country that use large amounts of gas for power generation may see some increase in natural gas prices over the next couple of months, the overall likelihood of any significant summer jump in gas prices now seems remote, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently concluded. With natural gas storage injections hitting record highs in April through June, EIA sees average wellhead prices in the third quarter continuing on a downward slope, averaging $3.40/Mcf.

Formed when one day’s high is lower than an adjoining day’s low,chart gaps are a technical feature that garner plenty of marketattention. And over the last two weeks, natural gas traders havedone just that; attempting to fill the more than dime void leftbetween the $2.305 low from Dec. 30 and the $2.20 high from Jan. 4.Each day since then, they have steadily chipped away at the gap bymaking higher highs in each of the last seven trading sessions.That set the stage last Friday. Would the futures market crumbleunder the weight of sagging holiday weekend demand, or continuehigher to plug the hole up to $2.305? That question was answeredsuccinctly Friday morning when buyers, armed with fresh weatherforecasts and propelled by stop-loss buying, bid the Februarycontract 7 cents higher to a $2.322 close.

After a quick check lower to fill in a small chart gap, thefutures market continued higher last Friday in an abbreviated, butextremely active trading session. The July contract finished up 7.6cents to $2.358, capping a two-day, 14.8-cent advance. Estimatedvolume was 66,263.

For the second trading session in a row yesterday the Maycontract dipped lower at the open, but was unable to completelyfill in the chart created between last Wednesday’s $2.18 high andThursday’s $2.20 low. And once that early selling pressure driedup, the market was free to rally on waves of buying by both localand commercial traders. The May contract pressed higher throughoutthe session, spiking above the $2.30 level at the closing bellbefore settling at $2.299, a 7.3-cents advance on the day. Atechnical difficulty at Nymex last night suspended the after-hourscomputer-only Access trading session.