Chances

Can the cash market run the table this week? It extended its chances quite a bit Thursday by recording increases at virtually all points again. Cooling load was due to get a little boost in parts of the Midwest and was returning to some extent in interior California, although forecasts were mostly moderate in the rest of the Midwest and the Northeast. The previous day’s 4.1-cent gain by futures was an additional modest bullish influence.

The chances of an Oregon liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility being constructed remain about 50-50, with the crucial indicator coming early next year, said Portland, OR-based Northwest Natural Gas Co. CEO Gregg Kantor

The Oregon Land Use Board of Appeals (LUBA) last Tuesday remanded to Coos County its permit for the development of the Jordan Cove LNG project and related interstate-connecting pipeline. The county now has the option of revising the permit in an effort to gain approval from the appeals board.

A deal signed late Monday by 14 centrist senators to avert a showdown over judicial nominees “bodes positively” for the chances for energy legislation in the Senate next month, said energy analyst Christine Tezak. She believes the outlook for energy legislation in Congress this year would be particularly good if the cooperative spirit continues.

As sources had predicted, the cash market resumed falling Tuesday following Monday’s modest rebounds. Mild to cool weather from the East through the Rockies, along with the next-day impact from faltering energy futures on Monday, were cited as chief factors in the softening that is expected to continue at least through the coming weekend.

Despite chances of Hurricane Isabel entering the Gulf of Mexico continuing to fall, most points ranged from flat to as much as a dime or so higher Monday. The market was spotted with small losses here and there, but the only sizeable one was a dime-plus decline in San Juan Basin.

As tropical depression six fizzled into a tropical wave with slim chances of revival, so did any hope for a gas futures market reversal. The August contract quickly resumed its downward course in overnight trading, and sailed right down through $5 Tuesday morning to a low of $4.84. The contract ended the day down 23.9 cents at $4.868, just a few cents above its daily low. Its daily high of $5.040 was reached just after the opening bell.

Despite expectations of continued softness following Tuesday’s all-around price plunges, most points found themselves in rally mode Wednesday. With a few scattered small drops thrown into the mix, the majority of the cash market ranged from flat to up nearly 40 cents, with gains in the teens being most common. Tennessee Zone 6 was a standout with an uptick of more than 80 cents.

The little El Nino that has been warming equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of Peru apparently grew during the month of October, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which now expects much warmer sea surface temperatures this winter to lead to warmer than normal temperatures in the northern United States.