With some help from a 13.3-cent gain Friday in the prompt-month debut by April futures and colder forecasts for most territory east of the Mississippi River, prices firmed at nearly all points Monday. The restoration of industrial load following its usual weekend decline also contributed to the overall advance.
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March Grinds Lower; Analyst Sees Summer Price Weakness as Well
March natural gas futures continued Thursday’s descent Friday in lackluster trading as the contract could only carve out less than a 6-cent range. Traders noted continuing pressure on the front end of the board from 2012 contracts, and others cited the likelihood of moderate temperatures this summer. At the end of the day March futures fell 7.6 cents to $3.910 and April skidded 6.0 cents to $3.977. March crude oil dropped $1.15 to $85.58/bbl.
Futures Erase Monday’s Gains to Close Just Above $4
Continuing the recent string of back-and-forth trading, January futures, fresh off Monday’s 17.1-cent gain, declined by 17.8 cents on Tuesday to $4.059.
Futures Continue Lower as Cold Is Already Factored In
Feeding off Monday’s 18.9-cent decline, January natural gas futures continued to plumb lower price levels on Tuesday. The prompt-month contract reached a low of $4.126 before closing the regular session at $4.180, down 3 cents from Monday’s finish.
Cash Climbs Despite Plump Storage, Moderating Temperature Forecast
Despite negative guidance coming from the screen’s 12.8-cent decline in December natural gas futures Friday, a vast majority of cash points traded Monday for Tuesday delivery moved higher — from a few cents to just more than a dime.
Futures Continue to Rise Despite Fundamentals
December natural gas futures traded in a tight 10-cent range on Friday before closing the regular session at $3.937, up 8.1 cents from Thursday’s finish but 10.1 cents lower than the previous week’s close.
Mild Temps, Screen Dive Push All Points Lower
Moderate to cool conditions were still dominating the overall forecasts, and as a couple of sources had pointed out, Thursday’s 24.8-cent screen plunge “practically guaranteed” lower prices Friday. They were correct as quotes fell across the board from about C5 cents to 30 cents or so; all drops were in double digits except for those at Empress and NOVA Inventory Transfer in Western Canada.
Weak Influences Gang Up to Depress All Points
Prices fell across the board Friday as the continuing dearth of either heating or cooling load, the previous day’s 9-cent futures drop and the usual weekend dip of industrial demand combined to soften the cash market. The lack of any credible tropical storm threat to offshore production was another bearish factor.
Futures Rebound; Forecasters Eye Stormy October
Continuing the months-long tradition of back-and-forth trading, October natural gas futures gained back almost half of Monday’s 20.2-cent decline on Tuesday. The prompt-month contract added 9.7 cents to close the regular session at $3.919.
Weather Load Still Light, But Most Points Up Anyway
Chiefly reflecting the previous Friday’s 11.5-cent rebound by October futures and the return of industrial load from its usual weekend hiatus, prices rose at a large majority of points Monday.