Bullishness

Natural gas futures rose Friday as traders attempted to factor in the loss of generation from the Browns Ferry nuclear plant and continued bullishness derived from Thursday’s inventory report. At the close June had risen 12.7 cents to $4.698 and July was up 12.8 cents to $4.761. June crude oil added $1.07 to $113.93/bbl.

In a week’s time the bullishness for natural gas as a transportation fuel moved up considerably, with the Obama administration and industry promoting the increased use of natural gas-fueled vehicles.

The natural gas futures market backed off of its Friday bullishness on Monday as some private weather forecasts for the near term began to look warmer than first expected. The February contract dropped 9.7 cents to $5.722.

The natural gas futures market backed off of its Friday bullishness on Monday as some private weather forecasts for the near term began to look warmer than first expected. The February contract dropped 9.7 cents to $5.722.

Apparently it takes more than light weather-based demand and heavy storage inventory levels to faze the bullishness of cash traders lately. Even with prior-day futures support dropping to 2.3 cents Tuesday, the physical market managed to extend upticks at nearly all points Wednesday. Granted, Wednesday’s advance wasn’t nearly as strong as the one a day earlier, but the fact that it was achieved at all was somewhat impressive.

Shrugging off lingering technical bullishness, the natural gas futures market tumbled lower Thursday as traders adjusted their positions in reaction to slightly bearish supply news. Light trading volume at Nymex due to traders’ observance of Yom Kippur was seen as adding to the price volatility, with the November contract carving out a wide, 41-cent trading range. It closed for the session at $13.103, down 42.1 cents for the day.

A writer of detective fiction might call it The Mystery of the Unsupported Bullishness. Even with the typical lower demand of a weekend added to other negative fundamental influences arguing for lower gas prices, most of the cash market continued to achieve small advances Friday.

Eastern markets proved unable to sustain the bullishness of the day before and registered drops ranging from a nickel to 20 cents or so Wednesday. Thanks to heavy air conditioning load in some sections and supply issues, however, the West was able to keep its numbers flat to up more than 20 cents in the Rockies.

Monday’s huge surge of cash bullishness came to a near-standstill Tuesday, and several NGI sources indicated they expect a gradual price slide to begin Wednesday. Other than moderate increases in the Northeast, Rockies/Pacific Northwest and California and stronger gains in Western Canada, most points were flat to less than a nickel higher Tuesday (a few scattered small declines also were part of the mix).