While market bears are currently in the driver’s seat and appear likely to push near-month futures prices down into the mid-$5s or possibly lower barring a sudden increase in hurricane activity, the bulls clearly have control of the out-months with the spread between October and January futures recently peaking at a whopping $4.70. Some analysts conclude that these spreads are a clear indication that lower prices won’t be around for long.
Bears
Articles from Bears
Futures Drop to 21-Month Low as Heat, Storms Remain Nearly Nonexistent
Coming out of the Independence Day holiday weekend, August natural gas futures on Wednesday gave bears further reason to continue celebrating as the contract dropped significantly lower on the lack of hot weather and nearly nonexistent storm activity. After equaling the $5.750 spot month low from May late in Wednesday’s session, the prompt-month closed out the day at $5.765, down 33.9 cents.
‘Rally Or Else’ For Bulls; July Expires at 17-Month Low
While most industry players had been expecting a fairly quiet expiration for the July natural gas futures contract, bears kept the pressure on in trading Wednesday. After hitting a low of $5.810 late in the session, July natural gas ended up going off of the board at $5.887, down 22 cents on the day.
Bulls Raise Their Horns Despite 14-Cent Decline Wednesday
After tumbling lower for the first three hours of trading, the natural gas futures market rebounded Wednesday as bears failed to press the market down to near-term technical support. The June contract finished the session at $6.606, down 14 cents on the day but above its $6.540 low for the session.
NGI The Weekly Gas Market Report
Gas Will Average $9/MMBtu in 2006, Says R.W. Beck
R.W. Beck’s second quarter gas price forecast could give bulls something to smile about, but bears might prefer to read a recent note from Citigroup’s futures research department.
R.W. Beck Sticking to $9 Gas Price Forecast
R.W. Beck’s second quarter gas price forecast could give bulls something to smile about, but bears might prefer to read the latest from Citigroup’s futures research department.
Raymond James Says Drilling Spending Up Despite Price Volatility
Not to put too fine a point on it, but “the bears were again proven wrong” when it comes to exploration and development (E&D) spending, says Raymond James & Associates in its weekly research note. In fact, say the firm’s energy analysts, E&D spending for their selected universe of companies posted 41% growth over 2004.
Offshore Shut-Ins Slip to 3.7 Bcf/d; Texas Production on Rise
As winter approaches it may be only a matter of time before the gas market bears run out of fundamentals pointing in their favor, but right now offshore gas production shut-ins are falling steadily, Texas production is on the rise, and the warm weather and downward price pressure continues.
INGAA Study Cites ‘Best Practices’ to Avoid Permitting Delays, Agency Conflicts
The natural gas industry bears as much of the responsibility for avoiding permitting delays and minimizing conflicts as do federal and state regulators, according to a new study issued by the INGAA Foundation Monday.
Gas Futures Free-Fall Lower as Cash-Futures Convergence Kicks Up
Natural gas bears roared back to life Monday and put to rest any doubt about who is in charge of the market. It took less than an hour for these sellers to rescind Friday’s 24-cent advance, but that was not enough. By the time the dust had settled and the last trade tabulated, the numbers for Monday’s trading session were impressive. With its $6.762 settle, the December contract had fallen 35.3 cents from Friday’s close and down nearly $2.80 from its late October peak.