Bearish

Incremental prices closed out the month of January once againdefying bearish demand factors. In deals done Friday, most averagesvaried little from their Thursday positions. And though traderswere separating weekend business into Saturday/Sunday andMonday-only deals due to the shift from January to February, theyreported little appreciable difference in pricing between the twotime periods.

The U.S. was getting colder Thursday, but that fact gave nosupport to cash prices, which mostly fell between a nickel and 15cents. A futures drop of less than a penny was too small to matter,sources said, but the second straight report of storage injections,combined with forecasts of warmer weather next week and a drop inJanuary crude oil futures to less than $11/barrel, was too much fortraders to ignore.

Bearish fundamental factors once again took over at the New YorkMercantile Exchange Tuesday, sending the natural gas futures marketspiraling lower and nearly erasing gains registered over the priorthree trading sessions. Even cash prices, which continued to spikedramatically higher yesterday, did not influence the futuresmarket. After January opened below key support, the market neverlooked back as prices fell 18.8 cents to $1.913 at the closeTuesday. And just like that, the futures-cash basis has shrunk froma whopping 97 cents to a tight 14 cents over the past two days.

After briefly testing the downside early Friday, January futuresclawed their way higher and briefly broached the $2.00 level in theafternoon. But a late selloff ensued, which chased prices back downto settle at $1.978, a 1.9 cent gain for the day. Estimated volumewas 72,807.

A strong cash market and a shift in attention from the bearishsupply situation to the bullish demand forecasts collaboratedThursday to send futures prices spiraling higher. That enabled theDecember contract to move through a couple of key chart levels enroute to its settlement of $2.553. Estimated volume, which has beennotably less than usual this week, registered a respectable 88,159.

Overall the cash market Thursday decided one bearish storagereport in the hand was worth more than two tropical storms in thebush. But although nearly all points checked in as flat to downabout a nickel, sources said the softness probably would have beenquite a bit greater if it hadn’t been for September’s thirdstraight weekly storm threat to Gulf of Mexico production,especially in light of the screen’s nickel-plus drop.

“Fundamentals are bearish, technicals are bullish, and today[Tuesday] the bulls beat the [socks off] of the bears.” Rather thandescribing a pro sports encounter between two Chicago teams, aHouston-based aggregator was summing up his view of the physicaland futures gas markets. Led by a soaring screen that dazzledobservers with its pyrotechnics (“this is crazy,” exclaimed onemarketer), cash prices were rising by a dime or more at nearly allpoints in the face of continuing widespread mild temperatures.

Given mild weather, bearish storage levels and the normal slumpin weekend demand, many traders were surprised Friday to see nearlyall Eastern points stay flat or go up as much as 3-4 cents. ThoughGulf Coast numbers were “falling hard” near deadline after startingseveral cents higher, a producer surmised they were being held upat first by “hurricane hype.” Other sources also mentioned that asthe reason for the relative Eastern strength, saying they couldthink of no other explanation.

The futures market continued to trade sideways to finish out theweek on Friday despite the large bearish sentiment, underpinned byfundamentals, that continues to dominant the market. The Septembercontract may have slipped only slightly to settle at $1.947, but itwas not for a lack of trying. Friday produced very choppy tradingthat had the prompt month bouncing between the $1.90 and $2.00.