Bearish

A veteran natural gas reserve and production expert has issued abearish warning to natural gas market observers: 1998 total reserveadditions could jump as much as 3 Tcf from 1997’s figure to between22 and 23 Tcf. That would be well above the range of 14.9 to 20.2Tcf over the last nine years. With 1998 production estimated atabout 19 Tcf the forecast adds up to reserve additions exceedingproduction by 116% to 121%.

A veteran natural gas reserve and production expert has issued abearish warning to natural gas market observers: 1998 total reserveadditions could jump as much as 3 Tcf from 1997’s figure to between22 and 23 Tcf. That would be well above the range of 14.9 to 20.2Tcf over the last nine years. With 1998 production estimated atabout 19 Tcf the forecast adds up to reserve additions exceedingproduction by 116% to 121%.

To say the weekly storage report has had an impact on thenatural gas futures market lately would be a gross understatement.Following an impressive 69 Bcf injection on Sept. 1, the futuresmarket dropped 26.6 cents the very next day. Then a week later,following the release of a relatively small 66 Bcf refill, themarket took a wild, 24-cent ride higher to close the session in themid-$2.80s. Now, a week later the question that everyone is askingis whether we will see another big move today. At first glance theanswer to that question was a resounding “yes” because shortlyafter the storage figures were released the October contracttumbled a dime lower in after-hours Access trading.

Feeding off Wednesday’s weakness and reflecting fading concernsthat any of the three tropical systems would reach the gas-richGulf of Mexico, the futures market tumbled lower yesterday as bothcommercial and speculative traders exited long positions. Theresultant price slide left the September contract just penniesabove its $2.90 low for the week and turned several bulls intoshort-term bears. The prompt month finished 8.2 cents lower at$2.948 shortly after notching a $2.93 low late in the session.

The cash market switched gears Tuesday, as gains of 3 to 11cents at most points reversed a two-day trend of general weakness.A strengthening futures screen replaced the slackening powergeneration demand as the main market driver, one trader said, andthe result was increasing gas prices despite moderatingtemperatures throughout the nation.

After being hit with a devastating combination of bearish newsFriday afternoon and Monday morning, traders at the New YorkMercantile Exchange had little choice when the market reopened. TheJuly contract took it on the chin, gapping lower on the open beforeposting a 7.1-cent decline to finish at $2.237. The August contractdid not fare any better, slipping 6.9 cents to $2.268. Estimatedvolume was solid with 78,116 contracts changing hands.

Normalizing weather caused cash prices at most points to drop afew cents to nearly a dime yesterday with the Chicago pointsaccruing the largest losses, but the downturn failed to abatemarketers’ optimism, which was buoyed by a new six- to 10-dayforecast calling for below-normal temperatures for a large portionof the nation.

Some would say that bull traders have endured a year’s worth ofbearish price news already this year as consistentlywarmer-than-normal weather forecasts each Monday have been followedby lower-than-expected storage withdrawal figures Wednesday. Thisone-two combo has done a number on natural gas prices, which haveplumbed to near-record lows amid almost non-existent volatility.But for at least a day, that was a distant memory Monday asshort-covering, egged on by a slew of fundamental and technicalfactors, buoyed the prompt-April contract 7.3 cents to $1.701.

The cash market shrugged off what many considered a bearishstorage withdrawal report and maintained what has become February’sstatus quo Thursday: flat pricing with mostly tight ranges. Sourceswere dismayed to admit their general expectation Wednesdayafternoon of falling prices Thursday was off the mark. “Nothingseems to be moving this market in any direction,” a marketer in theWest said.