Avoided

Even with a conservative Henry Hub gas price forecast of $5/MMBtu in 2004 and $3.50 over the long term and an oil price forecast of $30/bbl in 2004 and $21/bbl for beyond 2005, the credit rating picture and overall fundamentals for the exploration and production sector should continue to improve unless certain thorny issues, such as reserve revisions, get in the way of some companies, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) said in a new report.

Dominion Resources, which up until now has largely avoided the collapse in energy stocks, saw its shares tumble 10% Monday to $52.33 in response to a reduced earnings outlook for 2003. The prospective reduction will come mainly from a pending equity sale that is designed to strengthen Dominion’s balance sheet and debt coverage ratios to meet stricter standards from the credit ratings agencies, which are concerned with the heightened risk in the energy industry.

Southern California Edison’s current precarious financial position would have been avoided if federal and state regulators had done their jobs, an Edison regulatory attorney told a congressional committee in San Jose on Wednesday in the second day of a three-day sweep through California. The hearings by the House Government Reform Committee conclude in San Diego today.

California regulators Thursday turned down an emergencysix-month provisional avoided-cost measure that would have frozenthe gas prices used by utilities in their formula for payingmust-take qualifying facility (QF) electricity generators.

For the second Friday in a row, most points avoided the pricejinx associated with lower weekend demand. Flat to slightly higherwas the general rule, although a few points rose by as much as 8cents. Most of the weaker spots were concentrated in Northeastcitygates and the Rockies, with Iroquois Zone 2 deliveries fallingby almost 15 cents. Prices were down overall, but experiencing alate bounce due to screen strength, a Northeast trader said.

Bay State Gas avoided a significant bypass by the MassachusettsMunicipal Wholesale Electric Co. (MMWEC) thanks to landowneropposition to a larger pipeline proposal and a lengthy negotiationprocess. After two years of work on an alternative 15-mile bypassof the Bay State system that would have linked with Tennessee GasPipe Line, MMWEC yesterday signed a 20-year agreement covering 13Bcf/year of new gas transportation on Bay State’s system to servepower generation load.

FERC staff intentionally avoided responding to technicalquestions about the proposed auction concept that were submitted byseveral gas industry groups prior to a workshop held earlier thisweek, a pipeline group representative charged.