Assessment

While using 2003 forecast data for the most part, the California Energy Commission (CEC) last Friday released its latest natural gas assessment, reiterating concerns and observations from last year — namely, concerns about continued historic high wholesale prices and the need for some combination of demand-response and new supply imports to meet future demand.

A fire, which ignited Thursday following a blast at Duke Energy’s Moss Bluff underground salt cavern storage facility in Liberty County, TX, just northeast of Houston, increased in size and intensity in the pre-dawn hours Friday when an above-ground valve structure failed, causing a larger release of natural gas that shot flames 1,000 feet into the sky, the company said.

After completing preliminary environmental assessment work on a staff-to-staff basis with federal regulators, Mitsubishi Corp.’s California-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) development company, Sound Energy Solutions (SES), is set to file a formal application later this month with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. A City of Long Beach Energy Department official confirmed that the port city is still backing the proposal, assuming it can meet all safety and environmental standards.

After completing preliminary environmental assessment work on a staff-to-staff basis with federal regulators, Mitsubishi Corp.’s California-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) development company, Sound Energy Solutions (SES), is set to file a formal application later this month with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. A City of Long Beach Energy Department official confirmed that the port city is still backing the proposal, assuming it can meet all safety and environmental standards.

Despite some new-found attention in the financial news media, San Jose, CA-based Calpine Corp. is still only studying the feasibility of a California coastal liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal in the far northern end of the state.

An early assessment from western energy observers adds up to a long list of issues for California’s Gov.-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger once the election is officially certified and an official transition date is set. Some of them may test the new governor’s professed preference for market-based and environmentally sensitive solutions.

Recent gas injection trends and a re-assessment of the reduced reward/risk profile of the oil and gas drilling sector have led analysts with RBC Capital Markets to assume a cautious stance on certain energy stocks through this year.

If the assessment of a top industry analyst is correct, the structure of natural gas demand is undergoing a significant change which is likely to lead to increased weather-derived price volatility. Current price levels beg the question of how such elevated prices can be sustained given full storage supplies.

Earlier this month, Mark Papa, the CEO of EOG Resources Inc., offered a pessimistic assessment for the decline rate in U.S. natural gas production in 2002 (see NGI, Sept. 9). He said then that production would fall between 5-6% over 2001. Tuesday, EOG lowered its expectations, predicting production will fall 7%.