It was no surprise that nearly all points were in rebound mode Monday from weekend softening. But it was somewhat surprising that unlike last week, when Northeast citygates tended to lead price climbs higher and also the subsequent retreats, it was western points (Rockies/Pacific Northwest, Western Canada, California and the Southwest basins) which were in the driver’s seat for this new burst of cash bullishness.

In fact, a couple of flat Northeast points averted an across the board bull run Monday. Otherwise, gains ranged from a little less than a dime to Westcoast Station 2’s advance of about C45 cents.

The usual suspects were behind the rally: cold weather forecast this week for almost all of the Lower 48 U.S. states and Canada, next-trading-day support from Friday’s energy futures markets, and the restoration of industrial load that slumps over a weekend.

Snow may reach as far south Tuesday as Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, but in general the South isn’t contributing much heating load. The bulk of that is occurring where it usually does: the Midwest and Northeast. But the West, which has been much milder than the East in recent weeks, has returned to sub-freezing thermometer levels in the Rockies and Western Canada.

The weather has been rather “erratic” in Calgary lately, observed a producer. It was back to freezing temperatures Monday after unusual warmth kicked off the weekend, he said. The coldest it’s expected to be in the area this week will be minus six degrees Celsius (about minus 9 Fahrenheit), the producer added.

Trading was “terrible today” on spreads out of Alberta, complained the producer, who said he couldn’t cover the costs of transport. An electrical outage over the weekend at Westcoast’s Pine River Gas Plant had some impact on high Station 2 numbers, he said. Even though the problem was resolved by late Saturday night, everybody was trying to get their accounts back in order Monday.

Look for cash numbers to keep rising Tuesday, said a Gulf Coast producer. Monday’s strong performance by natural gas futures, in which the April contract rose $36.6 cents and broke through the psychologically key $7 barrier, almost assures that, he said. And the screen’s not beginning its run-up until most cash business had been completed and then settling near the daily high were other bullish signs for the physical market.

However, the producer discounted cold weather to some degree as a major factor in the market’s latest show of strength. There aren’t many days left in the most recent cold spell, he said, “and even this past weekend [in the Northeast] wasn’t as cold as we expected.” The Northeast will be running about five degrees below average this week, which isn’t especially severe in the middle of March, he said. After all, that’s the time to get outside and fly kites.

The spreads between Gulf Coast numbers and Northeast citygates were bumping up against transport costs Monday, he continued. For instance, Texas Eastern transport from the East Louisiana zone to M-3 in the market area was right at variable costs, the producer said, although that didn’t seem to deter deal-making as long as the spread wasn’t negative.

Another Gulf Coast trader said she and counterparties had “been kicking around ideas” about why the screen went on such a tear, and couldn’t come up with anything other than what was being said by others: “it had to be buying by the funds.” It certainly wasn’t fundamentals that caused “these outrageous prices” because it’s getting close to the end of winter, so below average temperatures aren’t as cold as they were a month or two ago.

Monday’s advance left cash prices around half a dollar or more above first-of-month indexes at virtually all points.

In his final estimation for this week’s storage report, Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper said he looks for a withdrawal of 94-104 Bcf to be announced for the week ending March 11.

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