The remarkable strength of last week’s market came to an end Friday as prices fell at all points. Nearly all of the cooling load that remained in the South Friday was expected to disappear over the weekend, and although the Midwest and Plains could anticipate substantially colder weather Saturday accompanied by continued snow in some areas, a warming trend would be getting under way Sunday.

The Rockies forecast called for warmer temperatures to be arriving through the weekend, and the Northeast was due to have relatively moderate conditions continue.

The drop of industrial load that accompanies a weekend market was an additional bearish factor.

Most of Friday’s declines were fairly moderate in ranging from a little less than a nickel to 45 cents or so. The Midcontinent and Rockies took most of the biggest price hits.

The South still felt rather summery Friday, but an approaching cold front was due to extinguish nearly all of the region’s cooling load from Texas eastward by Saturday. Florida was an exception, however, where highs remaining in the 80s prompted Florida Gas Transmission to keep an Overage Alert Day in place at least through Friday.

A big temperature drop was due in the Midwest for Saturday, with Chicago expected to go from a high of 64 Friday to the low 40s Saturday. But the anticipated brevity of the latest blast of cold allowed the Chicago citygate to fall about a nickel.

PG&E projected Friday that linepack on its California Gas Transmission system would exceed maximum target levels Sunday and by even more Monday, making it increasingly likely that a weekend high-inventory OFO could be issued.

There was little change in the Independence Hub situation (see Daily GPI, April 10) Friday, said Rick Rainey, spokesman for majority owner Enterprise Products Partners. “We are making progress” on mobilizing equipment and divers, he said, adding that they were not on-site yet but probably would be in place by early this week. Enterprise was not aware of any weather concerns for the area that could hamper diving operations, he said.

Referring to reports implying that the platform and export pipeline shutdown had cost 1 Bcf/d of production, Rainey said he thinks some people were confusing the Hub’s total capacity of 1 Bcf/d for what was lost. NGI‘s citing of recent average flows of 900 MMcf/d was correct, he noted. However, Independence has completed the process of ramping up to full production since beginning operations last July, he said. “We’ve hit 1 Bcf/d a couple of times, but it’s kind of like a car speedometer; you don’t want to be racing at 100 mph all the time.”

It has been recognized in many instances that significantly lower levels of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports this year have helped keep a floor under natural gas cash and futures prices. That may be about to change. The Sabine Pass regasification terminal in southwest Louisiana was expecting its initial delivery Saturday (April 12) from Trinidad, while the Freeport facility on the Texas coast’s Quintana Island is looking for its first cargo from Nigeria around the middle of this week. And Excelerate Energy’s Northeast Gateway system in Massachusetts Bay is scheduled to receive its first tanker shipment, also from Trinidad, later this month (see related story). Also, LNG demand is expected to diminish this summer in Europe and Asia, which have been outbidding the North American market for many LNG cargoes so far this year (see related story).

In addition, a situation that has been bullish for western gas markets — extended winter conditions preventing an early melting of mountain snowpack in what is expected to be an especially strong year for hydroelectric supplies — may come to an end fairly soon. The Weather Channel (TWC) reported that by Monday, western highs could range from the 70s and low 80s in Montana to 100 in Gila Bend, AZ, in which case “snow will be melting rapidly across the mountains of the West.” The advent of heavy use of hydropower is likely to displace substantial amounts of gas-fired generation.

The long-awaited and often-delayed completion of the first phase of Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) to an interconnect with Panhandle Eastern in Audrain County, MO, may be at hand (see related story). Final construction activities continue for the final 210-mile section of REX-West, the pipeline said in a Thursday afternoon update. “All caliper pig runs have been completed. Completion of final tie-ins continues. Drying of the line is anticipated to commence over the next couple of days. Purging and packing and putting the line in service will commence pursuant to regulatory approvals. In-service is projected to be sometime after the next weekly posting, which may be a weekend day.”

A Midwest utility buyer was wondering what her region had to do to proceed into spring — sacrifice a goat or something? It was snowing in her city Friday morning, she said. However, by the middle of the coming week highs will be getting up to around 80, she said, which was just fine with her because “I’m ready to put my winter clothes away.”

The benefit of lingering winter weather, though, is that the company’s gas throughput is remaining very strong at a time when it could be expected to be minimal, the buyer said. “In fact, we [utility staffers] were just discussing whether we had enough gas” to get through the rest of the day, she added. She said she was pondering a possible intraday purchase Friday afternoon.

With May futures breaking a string of rising sessions with a decline of 19.7 cents Friday, a Texas-based marketer said that and forecasts of moderating weather in many areas early this week led him to expect more price softness Monday. The chief impact of the Independence Hub outage on his company was less availability of Tennessee 500 Leg supply (the Independence Trail export pipeline connects with the 500 Leg offshore Louisiana). However, supplies are a little looser on Tennessee’s 800 Leg, he said.

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