With many within the industry expecting only 40 Bcf or so to be removed from natural gas storage for the week ending Dec. 4, Thursday morning’s news from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that 64 Bcf was withdrawn was supportive enough for the bulls to launch the January futures contract back above $5 to a new high in the larger uptrend.

Just prior to the 10:30 a.m. EST report, the January contract was trading at $4.910, but in the minutes that immediately followed the prompt-month contract catapulted over the standing high of $5.318 to $5.335. Backed by a cold front still gripping much of the country futures reached $5.347 before closing at $5.298, up 40 cents from Wednesday’s close.

Thursday’s trade eclipsed the old $5.318 high for the bull move, which began in early September. The last time a front-month contract traded above Thursday’s peak was on Jan. 13, 2009.

There appeared to be a lot of uncertainty heading into the report as the only thing industry insiders could agree on was that the first withdrawal of the season would be witnessed. A Reuters survey of 24 industry players produced a draw expectation range of 29 Bcf to 73 Bcf with an average draw estimate of 46 Bcf, while Bentek Energy was projecting a 40 Bcf withdrawal. The actual 64 Bcf draw was almost spot-on last year’s 66 Bcf pull for the similar week but was still well smaller than the five-year average pull of 90 Bcf.

“I think folks got a little bit of a jolt Thursday morning because the [storage] number was larger than expected,” said a New York broker. “Combine that with the chill in the air and you’ve got a recipe for new highs. However, I’m not sure there will be much follow-through with the amount of gas still underground.”

Citi Futures Perspective’s Tim Evans with his 60 Bcf draw estimate was one of the few to almost hit the mark. “The draw of 64 Bcf was well above the 46-48 Bcf consensus expectation, although roughly in line with our own guess based on the degree day accumulations for last week,” he said. He called the withdrawal “a bullish surprise,” adding that the “colder temperatures for this week and on through the 11-15 day forecast period suggest bigger withdrawals to follow, a bullish context at least while the temperature outlook holds.”

As of Dec. 4, working gas in storage stood at 3,773 Bcf, according to EIA estimates. Stocks are now 472 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 513 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,260 Bcf. The East Region led the charge by removing 31 Bcf from underground storage while the Producing and West regions withdrew 24 Bcf and 9 Bcf, respectively.

The cold that much of the country has been dealing with for the week is expected to continue as weather forecasts are still calling for below- to much below-normal temperatures for the eastern half of the country through Dec. 24. In its morning report MDA EarthSat said a strong cold air mass would filter into the Midwest and East early as a storm system pushes eastward. “A couple days of strong belows [normal temperatures] are possible across the Upper Midwest as a result, while the rest of the Midwest and East should see a few days of readings in the much-below category. This cold is not expected to be quite as intense as the near term in the Midwest.”

Thursday’s jump in prices came as a rude awakening to some following Wednesday’s 21.6-cent drop. Short-term traders saw Wednesday’s retreat to $4.898 as something of a game changer. “Once the market got below $5 that was a big technical support number, and there were a lot of shorts that got zapped on the way up that re-entered on the short side,” a New York floor trader said Thursday morning.

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