Western points, which had shown firmness in the face of an overall weaker market Wednesday, got back in step with the East Thursday in registering flat to moderately lower numbers. Declines reached as much as 15 cents. But despite a widely acknowledged lack of fundamental weather support, NGI sources expect Thursday’s screen spike following the storage report to be sufficient for generating higher weekend prices Friday.

The Energy Information Administration’s report of 114 Bcf injection into storage last week was on the low end of most prior expectations, and the EIA also reported in a footnote that 11 Bcf of last week’s 125 Bcf injection was actually converted base gas. Nymex traders took the report and ran with it to higher ground — much higher ground. July gas futures ended the day up 36 cents. The crude oil and heating oil contracts saw moderate losses based on reports of rising product inventories, with crude finishing 4 cents under $30/bbl.

The highly bullish Nymex response to Thursday’s EIA report caught more than one cash trader by surprise. “The storage estimate was right in line with our expectations, but the screen’s reaction was definitely not,” said a Midwestern marketer. “What could have caused a sweeping reaction like that? The [Henry] Hub is trading at $5.75 [for the weekend], so yeah, I’d say cash prices will be up a least a quarter Friday.”

But to a producer, it wasn’t really so surprising that Nymex soared even with the storage report within expectations and generally weak weather-related load. “When the supply-demand situation is this tight, any little tidbit of information can move the market in a big way,” he said.

Gulf Coast prices “started up, went way down, then came back up” in the few remaining deals done after the EIA report launched the screen climb, according to a Houston-based marketer. He was part of the consensus opinion supporting expectations of higher weekend quotes, but added that “the only reason is Thursday’s screen spike. Otherwise there’s no fundamental reason at all for stronger prices.”

A Northeast utility buyer joined the bullish chorus. “Why not?” he replied when asked about prospects for a cash rebound. “Even with weather demand still hiding out, the screen spike will be enough to push the market higher Friday. We were lulled into believing we could get as much as 130 Bcf injected last week,” but the 114 Bcf report may have people rethinking storage strategy in a slightly more bullish light.

The buyer went on to say that this will be “the 13th or 14th straight weekend that we’ve had rain” in his area, helping keep temperatures depressed. There is still no sign of significant change from what seems to be perpetual mid-spring in the Northeast, he said.

A sizeable chunk of air conditioning load is starting to wane. Besides the unchanged coolness of the Northeast, a cold front from Canada is cooling off the Midwest again after a brief warmup earlier in the week. There was even potential for “patchy frost” early Friday across northernmost Wisconsin and Upper Michigan away from the Great Lakes, according to The Weather Channel. And a cold front was due to bring more thunderstorms to much of the South Friday and Saturday.

The West also is expecting the cold front treatment, ending a short-lived midweek spell of heat. In addition to the loss of cooling load, western points were depressed by a high-linepack OFO issued for Friday by PG&E (see Transportation Notes). Although SoCalGas did not issue an Overnominations Day alert, PG&E’s OFO caused declines of 10-15 cents in California, San Juan Basin and the Rockies to be among Thursday’s largest.

A Southeast utility buyer who had no trading to report for Thursday said the market was staying “very quiet for us.” She hoped such quietness isn’t the lull before a storm, as in a hurricane.

A Calgary-based producer reported doing July intra-Alberta sales ranging from the mid C$6.20s to mid $6.30s, with the higher pricing occurring later. He also said next-month numbers ran up even further into the C$6.40s on an online platform after he finished trading. The producer attributed the next-month run-up to the sharp futures uptick Thursday.

A tropical disturbance in Mexico’s Bay of Campeche was still believed unlikely to develop significantly. But as the Weather 2000 consulting firm observed, “This system may have a short life-span as strong wind sheer to its north is a formidable obstacle, but if NHC [National Hurricane Center] is on the ball, we probably will see T.D. [Tropical Depression] #3 classification here before Friday evening.”

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