Natural gas cash prices made a mid-spring advance of 4 cents overall Tuesday as a forecast influx of winter-like cold and snow was expected to pummel the nation’s midsection. The largest price increases were seen in the Midwest and Midcontinent, and California and the Gulf also registered gains. New England was flat to lower, and eastern prices made a nominal advance. At the close of futures trading, June had eased 4.9 cents to $4.343 and July was off 4.7 cents to $4.394. June crude oil fell $1.04 to $93.46/bbl.

An eastern marketer called the day’s activities similar to a “shrugging” shoulder season as prices at Algonquin and Iroquois were flat to lower and most of the price activity was farther west. “The Upper Midwest is expected to be cold, but there’s not a lot of activity otherwise.”

Quotes at the Algonquin Citygates were down a cent at $4.65, and deliveries to Iroquois Waddington dropped about 5 cents to $4.74. Gas on Tennessee Zone 6 200 L for Wednesday delivery was down a penny at $4.57.

Points in the Midwest made hefty gains as Old Man Winter refused to give up his grip. “A strong surge of cold air diving through the Plains early this week will bring more snow to the central Rockies and High Plains,” said Brian Edwards, an AccuWeather.com meteorologist. “The cold air will continue to drive southward into Tuesday, causing temperatures to drop between 15 and 20 degrees across Wyoming and the western part of the Dakotas, compared to Monday’s highs.” Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski added that “The cold will drive quickly to the south but will move more slowly to the east.”

Tuesday’s high of 72 in Minneapolis was forecast to plunge to 39 Wednesday and 41 on Thursday, according to AccuWeather.com. The normal high in Minneapolis at this time of year is 64. Denver’s high reading Tuesday of 61 was anticipated to drop to 33 on Wednesday before making a partial recovery to 49 on Thursday. The normal high in Denver is 65. In Kansas City, Tuesday’s toasty high of 84 was seen falling to 70 on Wednesday and 42 on Thursday. The seasonal high for Kansas City is 71.

On Alliance, Wednesday gas was seen at $4.38, 7 cents higher, and gas deliveries on Northern Natural Gas Ventura came in at $4.30, 8 cents higher. At the Chicago Citygates, gas delivered Wednesday rose 7 cents to $4.36, and at Demarcation gas was quoted at $4.30, 10 cents higher. At the Cheyenne Hub in southeast Wyoming, gas for delivery Wednesday rose 8 cents to $4.13, and gas on NGPL Midcontinent Pool gained 4 cents to $4.16.

Other market centers posted gains as well. Quotes at the Henry Hub added 2 cents to $4.30, and deliveries to El Paso Permian were 6 cents higher at $4.13. At the PG&E Citygates next-day deliveries were about 6 cents higher at $4.38.

“I’m thinking that some guys were just getting out after Monday’s big rally,” said a New York floor trader. “The prevailing sentiment is that we are still in good shape [to go higher], and traders are just getting ready to get back in. They are reloading and looking to pick their spots.”

Rather than reloading for another run at the upside, some see the market overextended and ripe for a further adjustment. “[Monday’s] strong price advance obviously carried much further than we expected, even after we adjusted our upside price parameter in June futures to the $4.35 level,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in a morning note to clients.

“We feel numbers above this previously expected resistance are unsustainable and that values will be drifting back down into our projected $4.00-4.35 zone into the upcoming new month of May. As a matter of fact, an eventual move down to as low as the $4.00 mark remains on the table should temperature views swing back to the mild side. Although the coal-to-gas substitution factor is difficult to measure on current basis, we look for it to become an increasingly bearish consideration since nearest futures have been able to maintain value north of the $4 mark for almost a month. In sum, we see downside risk exceeding that to the upside by almost a three-to-one ratio at current levels.”

From a technical perspective, Monday’s gains have paved the way for further advances. “Late last week, we laid out what the bears needed to do to indicate a seasonal top was in place,” said Brian LaRose, market technician with United ICAP. “So far this week, our most bullish case support, in terms of both price and RSI [Relative Strength Indicator], has held. On top of that, Friday’s doji has been followed by a bullish tower on the daily candlestick chart. Further upside is now possible. [We] suggest any new shorts work protective buy stops above $4.457,” he said in closing comments to clients.

WSI Corp. said, “Temps are not quite as cool as yesterday’s forecast over the central and southern U.S. while warmer in the [Northeast],” in its Tuesday morning six- to 10-day outlook.

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