Most of the market continued to climb Thursday as cold and snowy conditions were forecast to spread in the north-central section of the U.S. Cash numbers also had a smidgen of support from a screen gain of 3 cents a day earlier.

A few points were again backsliding by about a nickel to 15 cents or so. A large majority of locations were flat to up about $1.05. As on Wednesday, Thursday’s gains tended to be biggest in the Midcontinent and most of the West, but this time they were joined by hefty Midwest citygate increases. Otherwise gains were mostly fairly small and flat numbers were common.

The Energy Information Administration’s report of a 12 Bcf storage injection in the week ending Oct. 31 was at the bottom end of prior expectations and well below consensus estimates in the mid 20s Bcf. Though the build was seemingly bullish, Nymex traders apparently preferred to consider the near-full storage situation instead and sent December natural gas futures down 27 cents as all of Nymex’s energy complex saw big losses (see related story).

Heavy snowfall had been largely limited to the sparsely populated northern Plains Thursday, but would be occupying much of the Midwest Friday in an eastward trek. The Weather Channel said Friday’s temperatures would be five to 15 degrees below average from the Dakotas to Missouri and western Illinois but still as much as 10 degrees above average in the eastern Ohio Valley.

Even the South is likely to be contributing some heating load Friday as a cold front begins taking lows into the 40s at many locations. The Northeast will get one more day of relatively moderate chill before the cold front from the Midwest begins taking thermometer levels much lower Saturday.

After a quick visit to sub-freezing lows, the Rockies will begin thawing Friday but still be fairly cold. Otherwise, the West will range from around freezing in Western Canada to cold in the Pacific Northwest to cool in California to moderately warm in much of the desert Southwest.

A low-pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea strengthened overnight into Tropical Storm Paloma. As of Wednesday the system’s north-northwest heading had it pointed toward the Gulf of Mexico, but the National Hurricane Center said Paloma likely will turn toward the northeast by Saturday and pass over central Cuba and the Bahamas before emerging into the open Atlantic. It was not expected to make U.S. landfall.

Increases at Malin and the PG&E citygate were smaller Thursday than on Wednesday despite PG&E ending a high-inventory OFO.

The Rockies lost some production Wednesday when a malfunction at Jonah Gas Gathering’s Bird Compressor Station caused a shutdown of Pinedale Field production. However, the outage lasted only about nine hours and the station was back in service by early morning Thursday, allowing full Pinedale output for Thursday’s gas day, said Rick Rainey, spokesman for Jonah operator Enterprise Products Partners.

Commenting on the short-lived Pinedale outage, a producer said, “Well, lo and behold, an equipment problem that actually helps prices in the Rockies. This might be a first!”

More seriously, he noted that the Denver area didn’t get above the 40s Thursday, adding, “The gas gods must be smiling on the Rockies for a change.” He thought eastern prices might stay firm Friday because of the winter storm moving eastward, but said some western markets could soften because of Thursday’s weak screen and moderately warming temperatures.

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) six- to 10-day forecast for the Nov. 11-15 period called for below-normal temperatures almost everywhere east of a line running northward from the western edge of New Mexico to eastern Montana. The excluded parts of that region are peninsular Florida, the Northeast and Upper Midwest. NWS looks for above-normal readings in Maine and northern New Hampshire, and also in all of California, Nevada and Oregon along with southern Washington state and southwestern Idaho.

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