The cash market again baffled many Thursday with its ability to keep rising on either side of a low-demand holiday, especially with little help from weather fundamentals (except in the West) or the screen. At least a couple of traders think reality will set in today with falling prices.

“I don’t get it,” said an Oklahoma source who trades the Northeast. Cooler air was due to be moving into his market area behind a front today, and after an opening spike August futures were nearly a dime lower during morning cash activity. Yet Northeast citygates registered gains in the teens that were representative of an overall market rise ranging between slightly less than a dime to about a quarter (border-SoCalGas was a major exception with a dollar-plus uptick). “You definitely can’t blame it [higher prices] on weather,” the source said. “There’s some heat around here and there, but definitely nothing unseasonable.”

AGA topped the prior consensus of 95 Bcf for its one-day-delayed storage report with an actual injection volume of 105 Bcf, bringing overall inventories to 55% full. Perhaps more importantly, the key Consuming Region East’s majority injection of 62 Bcf brought it to more than half full for the first time in this injection season.

Heat was once again the story in the California market, even though Cal-ISO had not had to repeat Monday’s and Tuesday’s Stage One and Two Electrical Emergencies. Temperatures were starting to moderate a bit in Northern California, said one western trader, but there was still more than enough power generation load to go around for gas peaking units. He noted that Malin traded downward while the PG&E citygate went higher as the morning went on. He could detect no market impact from Wednesday’s outage of less than a day in which PG&E Gas Transmission-Northwest was unable to receive any gas from Northwest Pipeline at Stanfield due to a compressor’s damaged valve operator.

It’s a very quiet market currently with not much liquidity due to many traders taking vacation time in association with the Independence Day holiday, a Midwest marketer commented. He looks for the combination of Thursday’s lower screen, the above-expectations AGA storage report and the normal demand dropoff of a weekend to take their toll on cash prices today.

Don’t be surprised if Calgary traders are in a hurry to complete deals this morning. Some producers traded through the weekend Thursday in preparation for today’s rodeo parade kicking off Stampede, a Calgary-based marketer said, “but the rest of us will come into the office Friday morning and try to get finished quickly.”

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