Even with cooldowns from record-setting heat firmly established in the Northeast and Midwest market areas and trading covering the Saturday-Sunday period when industrial load typically declines, July-ending prices were rising again at a solid majority of points Thursday. A few flat to lower points crept into the overall mix but the majority of points posted gains ranging from 2-3 cents to about a quarter.

Traders attributed the general advance to the preceding two-day screen rally, which the September futures contract sustained Thursday in its debut as the new prompt month; the continuation of very hot weather across the South and most of the West; and the fact that temperatures in the northern market areas had merely subsided to levels more appropriate for midsummer, which meant power generation load had lessened but was still substantial.

Thursday’s deals were done for flows through Sunday because Aug. 1 will be on Monday. Friday trading will be for Monday only.

One source suggested that the possibility for renewed tropical storm activity next week may have lent a bit of psychological support to the cash market. Buying for storage injections might have gained in popularity — especially in the Gulf Coast market, which recorded most of Thursday’s larger gains — as people prepared for potential losses of offshore supplies again.

After enjoying a respite from tropical storm activity this week, offshore producers could see things heating up again next week. What The Weather Channel (TWC) called “an energetic tropical wave” was about 575 miles east of the island chain between Puerto Rico known as the Lesser Antilles on Thursday and would reach the islands in the next day or so. The system could become a tropical depression this weekend, TWC said.

A couple of traders agreed that the August aftermarket will begin Friday at least a little stronger than end-of-July prices. They cited the new screen support Thursday, in which natural gas futures joined Nymex’s petroleum-based offerings in strong advances; the National Weather Service’s forecast of above normal temperatures across much of the nation next week (see Daily GPI, July 27); and the fact that Friday’s Monday-only deals will not include the lower-demand weekend days.

A Gulf Coast producer who trades the Northeast said market-area prices started near their high ends but then came off later. He thought he detected some buying for month-end balancing, but said there was less real demand because of the Northeast’s relief from the heat. The New York City area “was Houston-hot through yesterday [Wednesday],” but would only be seeing highs of around 80 degrees Thursday and Friday.

“My head is spinning, so I guess we must be wrapped up on bidweek,” the producer jested. He was still making a few August sales Thursday, but said they were all at index. He reported doing “some TCO [Columbia Gas in Appalachia] at plus 25 [cents] basis” Wednesday, which he said was down from plus 29 cents earlier in the week. The August bidweek market was strong, he went on, because the nation was feeling “heat like we haven’t had in two years. I think it made people conscious of how quickly prices can run, and made them a little more willing to pay up” for August baseload.

A Houston-based marketer who trades the Midwest noted that prices tended to rise as bidweek proceeded, “so if you bought early, you did well.” Chicago citygate basis had fallen as low as minus 20 cents Wednesday because of the screen continuing to rise, he said. The marketer was reluctant to try to peg where he expected the Chicago index to be “because prices were all over the place,” but he might guess somewhere in the $7.40s.

He was still seeing some August trading going on Thursday, so obviously not everybody was finished already, the marketer said. He saw NGPL-TexOk averaging in the high $7.30s for August on an online trading service Thursday.

An industrial end-user reported seeing some hefty index premiums at Chicago. He said he was able to get gas delivered to the Nicor citygate for the NGI index plus a nickel, but said his index premium for NIPSCO ran as high as plus 12 cents. “I don’t know why there was such a big premium” for NIPSCO, he said.

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