With the Gulf of Mexico production outages from Tropical Storm Ida having already been discounted by the cash market Monday, it was no surprise that the remaining tropical depression was no price-booster Tuesday. However, continuing modest cooling trends in several regions, along with the previous day’s December futures increase of 7.5 cents, were enough to keep most of Tuesday’s losses minimal and result in more gains than a day earlier.

Prices continued to fall at a modest majority of points Tuesday, but few exceeded single digits as declines ranged from 2-3 cents to a little more than 20 cents. Flat to nearly 20 cents higher quotes, mostly in the Midcontinent/Midwest, made it a nearly even race between ups and downs.

The cash market will revert to having negative prior-day screen guidance Wednesday after prompt-month gas futures dropped 20.3 cents (see related story).

Cash traders still regarded the overall near-term weather outlook as moderate, but there was no denying that parts of the Northeast, Midwest, Upper Plains and Rockies had Wednesday forecasts for lows in the mid 30s to low 40s, while Alberta temperatures were continuing to bottom out in the 20s. Mild to cool weather continued to dominate in most other areas.

Gulf of Mexico production operations began returning to normal Tuesday after Ida, now regressed to a tropical depression, had moved ashore in the Mobile Bay area and started moving eastward along the Florida Panhandle area. Tropical rains from Ida were spreading to the northeast into the Mid-Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

A nontropical low-pressure are had formed over the central Atlantic about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda and was producing gale-force winds, NHC said Tuesday afternoon. It was accorded a low chance of developing within the next couple of days.

“Nothing makes sense” in this market, said a Midcontinent producer. Lots of regional supply was available to buyers Monday, he said, but it seemed to have dried up Tuesday. Prices again had a tendency to rise near the end of trading, he added.

There’s gas out there, the producer went on, but some of the owners don’t want to sell. Maybe they’re arbitraging, he suggested; they can sell December futures and buy physical gas today for a dollar or so less — but only if they have some storage injection space left in which to stash the gas until next month.

It’s currently a bit chilly in the Midcontinent, but nobody’s going to freeze to death, he said.

A Midwest marketer said local temperatures were “reasonable” Tuesday but had been warmer over the weekend. Conditions should be colder next week, she said, adding that she prefers the low 70s herself, but the mid 50s her region can expect this week are pretty comfortable.

None of her company’s clients has any heating load needs at this time, the marketer said, but it is still buying a little spot gas for an agricultural customer in the midst of a grain drying period.

The rebound of drilling rigs actively seeking gas in the U.S. continued with an increase of six to 734 during the week ending Nov. 6, according to Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count. Rig activity rose by one in the Gulf of Mexico and by five onshore. Baker Hughes said its latest tally was 1% above a month ago but 52% less than the year-earlier level.

Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans expects net storage injections to continue through the first two-thirds of the month. He looks for an addition of 20 Bcf to be reported for the week ending Nov. 6, followed by builds of 15 Bcf and 5 Bcf in the weeks ending Nov. 13 and Nov. 20, respectively.

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