Most of the market continued to rise Wednesday, but nearly all of the increases were smaller than Tuesday. Predictions of warmer temperatures approaching, particularly in the Midwest and South and to a lesser extent in the Rockies, create a moderately bearish price outlook through the end of the week.

Most locations recorded gains ranging from 2-3 cents to about 15 cents. Several scattered points were flat to about 15 cents lower, but only Iroquois Zone 1 sank by more than a nickel or so.

Another factor indicates that the cash market may find tougher sledding in trying to extend its recent firmness into a third day. Whereas Wednesday’s prices had a little extra boost from the futures rise of 4.9 cents a day earlier, they will have negative guidance Thursday after the prompt-month contract reversed into a 9.3-cent decline (see related story).

CIG, which had seen a moderately positive basis spread of 2 cents to Henry Hub during the first two trading days of the week, experienced a switch to about 2 cents negative Wednesday. However, despite Kern River’s flat performance while Henry Hub rose a little more than a dime, the Rockies pipeline still averaged about a nickel above the hub.

Tropical Storm Sean was expected to begin a northeastward curve Thursday morning that would eventually have it passing to the west and north of Bermuda on its way into the open North Atlantic.

The Rockies and some other parts of the West already have modest warming trends under way, while the Northeast remains moderately cool for this time of year. The South and Midwest can expect at least one more day of unseasonably chilly conditions Thursday, but they also will experience milder temperatures by the weekend, with some areas such as Houston starting to peak around 80 Sunday.

The National Weather Service’s forecast for the upcoming workweek of below-normal temperatures in the West and above-normal readings in the East is generally bearish for gas heating load. That’s because except for a few urban areas, western population densities are much lighter than those in the East.

It’s “plenty of the same,” a Midcontinent producer said when asked to describe the current market. He said more gas keeps trying to crowd aboard OGT than it can handle, which is one reason why OGT was the Midcontinent’s sole softer pipeline Wednesday.

Midcontinent temperatures seem to swing back and forth every one to two days or so, the producer said, adding that a brief period of moderate heating load will be followed by almost none, and then conditions will get colder again. He thinks traders will have to wait until December before cold weather becomes consistent enough to really matter in the market.

Even if Nymex and ICE have trading options available on the Friday after Thanksgiving, he expects nearly all cash traders to do deals through the holiday weekend on the preceding Wednesday.

IAF Advisors analyst Kyle Cooper anticipates a 35 Bcf storage injection being reported for the week ending Nov. 4.

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