Despite anticipated increases in productivity per rig across seven key U.S. producing regions, overall oil and gas output from these areas is expected to fall across the board from October to November, according to updated numbers released Tuesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

New well gas production

The agency’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) projects that total natural gas output from the Anadarko, Appalachia and Permian basins, as well as from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara formations, will fall 617 MMcf/d month/month to 81.785 Bcf/d in November.

Oil output from these regions is expected to drop 121,000 b/d to 7.692 million b/d during the same time frame.

EIA expects the gassy Appalachian Basin to see the largest month/month drop in gas production, with output expected to decline 149 MMcf/d to 33.646 Bcf/d in November. Output in the Haynesville, another gas-focused region, is on track to fall 29 MMcf/d to 11.637 Bcf/d.

In the Permian, the most active play in the U.S. onshore, EIA expects oil production to fall 17,000 b/d month/month to 4.365 million b/d, while gas production is on track to decline 74 MMcf/d to 16.679 Bcf/d.

The Anadarko is expected to post a 130 MMcf/d drop in gas output, falling 6.252 Bcf/d, and a 19,000 b/d decline in oil production, down to 404,000 b/d. The Eagle Ford is expected to post declines of 118 MMcf/d and 34,000 b/d, dropping total output to 5.785 Bcf/d and 1.014 million b/d, respectively.

Production in the Bakken will decline 22,000 b/d to 1.163 million b/d in November, with gas output sliding 41 MMcf/d to 2.562 Bcf/d. The Niobrara will see declines of 28,000 b/d and 76 MMcf/d, with total output falling to 578,000 b/d and 5.224 Bcf/d, respectively. 

The projected declines come as new-well production per rig is expected to increase for all regions except for the Anadarko, according to EIA. 

New-well oil production per rig is expected to increase by 30 b/d in November, with gains across the other regions making up for a 51 b/d decrease in well productivity in the Anadarko. New-well gas production is expected to rise by 137 Mcf/d in November, led by a 523 Mcf/d increase in per-rig output in Appalachia, according to EIA’s modeling. That’s expected to help offset a 324 Mcf/d decline in Anadarko production per rig.

The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) across the seven regions is set to fall by 77 month/month to 7,592 in November, according to EIA. The Anadarko is projected to remove 23 DUCs from its backlog, down from 704 to 681. The Permian, boasting the largest DUC backlog, is expected to remove the largest number from its total month/month, on track to drop 21 units to 3,525 in November.

In last month’s DPR, EIA projected a 428 MMcf/d month/month decline in natural gas output and a 68,000 b/d decline in oil production from September to October. 

The DPR uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven key regions. EIA’s latest DPR reflects drilling data collected through September.