Mixed price movement returned to the market Monday — barely — following Friday’s all-points losses. But only a few locations managed to be flat to as much as about 19 cents higher as softness continued to dominate cash quotes. The 32.3-cent decline by September futures Friday, coupled with an overall dearth of major cooling load outside the interior West, kept prices falling at a large majority of points.

Losses ranged from 2-3 cents to nearly C$1.50 (Westcoast Station 2). Except for the Westcoast location, drops peaked at a little less than 75 cents. The Northeast and Appalachia had most of the small gains.

Although it didn’t seem to justify such a large Station 2 drop, the removal of a 100% firm raw gas processing constraint over the weekend at Pine River Gas Plant (see Transportation Notes) was providing an influx of extra supplies into the Westcoast system.

At least one source saw a reasonable chance of an overall cash rally Tuesday after September natural gas rebounded by just over a dime based largely on an increase of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean (see related story).

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) considered two systems in the Atlantic Ocean as both having “medium potential” for tropical storm development. At 2 p.m. EDT a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave was about 825 miles east of the Windward Islands (the lower half of the Lesser Antilles chain between Puerto Rico and Venezuela), NHC said, adding that “this system has the potential to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.”

A large area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low-pressure area was centered about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Island and moving westward at about 10 mph, NHC said. That system also was believed capable of forming a tropical depression in the next day or two.

Although it ended an Overage Alert Day during the weekend, Florida Gas Transmission issued a new one Monday (see Transportation Notes). Nevertheless, Florida Gas Zone 3 and the Florida citygate recorded two of Monday’s largest losses of about a quarter and nearly 55 cents, respectively.

Nearly all points were trading way below first-of-month indexes Monday, with most deficits in triple digits. The smallest one of a little less than 15 cents was at Cheyenne Hub.

Widespread, locally heavy rain Tuesday will keep heat levels suppressed below seasonal norms in the South. Only some sections of Florida and Texas are due to get as high as the low 90s, while the rest of the region generally will be limited to the mid to upper 80s.

Temperatures also will peak at near to below seasonal means in the Northeast, according to The Weather Channel (TWC). New England and upper New York state aren’t expected to surpass the low to mid 70s. Similar conditions are forecast for the Midwest, TWC said, although southern sections of that region should reach the low to mid 80s.

It will be closest to normal summer weather in much of the West, where the desert Southwest, inland California and Rockies/Pacific Northwest will see highs in the 100s, mid to high 90s and upper 80s, respectively.

A Gulf Coast trader expressed some surprise at natural gas futures managing to rally while Nymex’s petroleum-based contracts continued to slide (see related story). She considered the Atlantic tropical stirrings as too minor and too remote at this point to justify the screen gain.

The trader noted that it had gotten cooler in Texas since late last week, and she could detect a drop in power generation load as a result. Cash prices were moving a few cents lower in later deals, which often signals the next day’s market direction, she noted. However, the whole futures strip was up Monday, she said, and that should be enough to give at least a small lift to cash numbers Tuesday.

The number of drilling rigs engaged in the U.S. search for natural gas rose by 21 to 1,571 during the week ending Aug. 8, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/). The Gulf of Mexico count went down by one, while 22 rigs were activated onshore, Baker Hughes said. Its tally was up 2% from a month ago and 6% higher than the year-ago level.

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