Interstate pipelines will want to be on the look-out for a majorstudy that will review the potential of the New England pipelineinfrastructure to supply the “enormous” increase in the demand fornatural gas by power generators in the region.

Boston-based Levitan & Associates Inc. has been commissionedby the New England Independent System Operator (ISO) to develop atechnical model of the region’s gas deliverability system that willserve as an “early warning sign of the [pipeline capacity] hotspotsacross the region,” providing generators with a roadmap of where tobuild new facilities and where not to build, said Levitan’sPresident Richard Levitan.

In addition, Levitan said it will recommend “what types ofinitiatives” pipelines should take to increase their deliverability— expansions, looping, compressor changes or “regulatoryproblem-solving that will improve the liquidity of the region.”

Levitan, a management consulting firm for the energy industry,noted the model will focus on five pipelines serving New England:Portland Natural Gas Transmission System, Maritimes &Northeast, Algonquin Gas Transmission, Tennessee Pipeline andIroquois Gas Transmission. It also will review storage and LNGavailability.

The New England ISO is concerned that “there’s not enoughpipeline capacity to meet the enormous new demand of the generationfacilities that are being added across the region,” Levitan noted.”Also, it’s concerned about the liquidity of the pipelines to meetsome of the peak requirements, not just in the winter but duringthe summer when sometimes the pipelines are conducting their ownmaintenance.”

Even if the 1 Bcf/d Independence Pipeline, which recently wasapproved by FERC, is built to the Northeast, Levitan doubts it willbe enough to meet the needs of the region’s generators. Although 1Bcf is an “enormous increase in pipeline infrastructure, it onlycorresponds to something in the vicinity of 5,000 MW of generation.More pipeline capacity has to be rationalized [added orreallocated] to meet the requirements of all the new entrants inthe market.”

He said Levitan will be working to design the model “certainlythrough the beginning of next year.” He indicated the results” maybe forwarded to FERC, which has been reticent about approvingNortheast pipeline projects for fear of overbuilding to the region.”I hope the pipelines will work with us in a productive fashion”since the results of the effort will be as much a benefit to thepipelines as to New England power generators, Levitan said.

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