As the North American Electric Reliability Council prepares to unveil its 2001 summer assessment today, a review of individual assesments prepared by several regional reliability councils shows that most of the councils feel confident that they will have the generating resources needed to meet peak demand this summer.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) recently said that a return this year to more normal summer temperatures has resulted in the council forecasting that its peak demand this summer will be approximately 2% lower than last year at 56,373 MW. ERCOT notes in its 2001 summer assesment that it will participate in a competitive choice pilot program starting June 1 that allows 5% of Texas customers to choose their energy provider. Assuming a 5% customer shift that may not be counted in forecasts provided by control areas with investor-owned utilities, ERCOT said it could see a peak of 58,550 MW.

Meanwhile, the Mid-Continent Area Power Pool (MAPP) and its members in early April announced that they will have adequate resources to meet the summer peak load requirements in the MAPP region. Based on preliminary data, the 2001 combined MAPP U.S. and Canada forecast non-coincident summer peak demand is expected to be 33,069 MW, which is about 1.8% above last summer’s peak. These numbers reflect the withdrawal of Alliant-West companies, MAPP noted, which are now members of the MAIN reliability council. Historically, MAPP has been an exporting region and does not rely on other regions to meet its peak demand. MAPP said the ability to transport power within its region is adequate for the 2001 summer season. Capacity in the MAPP region will increase by 1,060 MW due primarily to new combustion turbines, according to the reliability council, and this new generation results in MAPP having a projected capacity margin of 21.2%.

For its part, the Mid-America Interconnected Network (MAIN) last month said that its members have improved their ability to serve load during the summer of 2001 compared to that anticipated at the same time in previous summers. According to MAIN, additional capacity totaling 5,473 MW is scheduled to be added in various locations throughout the region. Of this, 1,255 MW is committed to MAIN load. Overall, MAIN said that its import capabilities from its surrounding regions are considered adequate. Also, MAIN said that its bulk electric transmission system generally appears to have no major limitations and is expected to perform adequately over a wide range of system conditions. At the same time, MAIN noted that parallel path flows have frequently restricted transfer capabilities into and within Wisconsin.

As a result, MAIN said that it will continue to closely monitor the historically contrained MAPP to MAIN interface. As for expected load this summer, MAIN said that non-coincident peak demand in its region is projected to be 55,221 MW, about 5.8% higher than the 2000 summer peak of 52,214 MW. But because the western area of Alliant move from the MAPP region to MAIN during 2000, values from the 2000 assessment are not directly comparable, MAIN noted. MAIN estimated that load management and interruptibles could reduce the 2001 summer load by 3,404 MW to an estimated net demand of 51,817 MW.

Elsewhere, the Mid-Atlantic Area Council (MAAC) recently disclosed that its 2001 summer forecast net peak demand is 51,358 MW. In a revised 2001 summer pre-seasonal assessment issued in late April, MAAC noted that this forecast includes the effects of interruptible demand and load management capabilities for the period that amount to 1,619 MW. MAAC also stated that all nuclear units are expected to be in service and at full capacity (12,987 MW) at the time of the peak. Installed capacity margin is expected to be 15.2%. MAAC said it expects to have sufficient generating capacity to serve the 2001 forecast summer peak demand, which assumes normal summer weather conditions. MAAC served last year’s summer peak of 49,288 MW on August 9, 2000, with no emergency actions needed. The council noted that the summer of 2000 was relatively cool.

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) also appears optimistic about meeting this summer’s demand. There should be an adequate supply of electricity this summer in Eastern Canada, New York state and New England, according to the NPCC, although the council questioned New York’s ability to deal with periods of exteme demand for power (see Daily NGI, May 3).

Turning to the East Central Area Reliability Council (ECAR), the council said that the capacity margin in its region is expected to be 11.5% during the peak demand this summer, slightly higher than the forecast for last summer. In a report issued last month, ECAR said that this continues the improvement in the projected capacity margin from a 10.8% margin in 1999 to 11.2% in 2000 to 11.5% in 2001. Under certain scenarios, ECAR can still anticipate that conditions in the summer of 2001 may be similar to the summers of 1998 and 1999, when available capacity margins were tight, ECAR acknowledged. While some 2,243 MW of import power is included in the analysis, it is anticipated that additional power purchases will be arranged prior to the summer, ECAR said.

©Copyright 2001 Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news report may not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in any form, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.