The market still has little on which to lean in the way of supportive weather; tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin has disappeared entirely for the time being, and except for some positive developments imminent in the Rockies, available storage injection capacity continues to tighten as the season enters its final weeks. Still, the somewhat implausible rally that began Monday was sustained through Tuesday at nearly all locations.
A few flat quotes failed to make the cut of upticks ranging from a couple of pennies to about 40 cents. The glaring exception to overall price trends was Line 300 in Tennessee’s Zone 4 dropping slightly more than a dollar after spiking by $1.14 a day earlier. It apparently was a delayed reaction to the pipeline bringing online a second phase of its Line 300 expansion late last week, with the Marcellus Shale rush to fill the new capacity causing more price competition near the bottom end of the point’s range.
By contrast, the Line 300 pool in Tennessee’s farthest downstream Zone 6 realized Tuesday’s largest gain.
November futures again provided next-day support to the cash market by surpassing Monday’s increase of 6 cents with one of 7.5 cents Tuesday (see related story).
Despite a substantive increase of a little more than a dime, Henry Hub’s average in the low $3.50s trailed the screen by about 8 cents.
The Atlantic tropical scene was quiet with no activity Tuesday after a low-pressure area over northern Florida and southern Georgia dissipated overnight.
Heating and/or cooling load remains fairly minimal with season early-fall temperatures dominating most forecasts. The South is due to continue topping out in the mid 80s for the most part, with several sections considerably cooler with 70s highs. Rainy weather entering the Northeast will keep regional temperatures at least five degrees below average, The Weather Channel said. With highs of no more than about 70 and lows in the 50s, the area from the Midwest through the Rockies is cool but does not yet have any meaningful heating demand.
Rockies producers are looking forward to Questar resuming service Thursday at its Clay Basin storage facility following the completion of reservoir testing. They will regain the option of injecting up to 225,000 Dth/d (see Transportation Notes).
Although the SoCal citygate rose about a nickel, IntercontinentalExchange found the point’s volume traded on its platform shrinking from 580,400 MMBtu Monday to only 383,600 MMBtu Tuesday.
Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates anticipates a storage build of 104 Bcf being reported for the week ending Oct. 7, which he said replaced his original estimate of 109 Bcf. Kyle Cooper of IAF Advisors predicted a slightly larger build of 106 Bcf. Citi Futures Perspective Tim Evans also looks for an addition of 106 Bcf, to be followed by injections of 123 Bcf, 93 Bcf and 51 Bcf for the weeks ending Oct. 14, Oct. 21 and Oct. 28, respectively.
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