A 5.4-cent rise in May futures on the previous Friday was abetted by moderately chillier weather that developed over the weekend and the return of industrial demand from its typical weekend hiatus in causing prices to range from flat to about a dime higher at nearly all points Monday.

A few points, mostly in the Rockies, fell by a couple of pennies to about a nickel. Flat quotes were common, and virtually all of the gains were in single digits.

Monday’s cash trading had a little positive screen guidance, but the Tuesday market won’t get any such support after Nymex’s prompt-month contract reversed into a drop of 9.5 cents Monday (see related story).

SoCalGas kept a high-linepack OFO that began last Wednesday in effect through Monday but is allowing it to expire Tuesday. Prices at the SoCal citygate and Southern California border were up nearly a dime each in response.

A weekend surge of cooler temperatures in many areas is already yielding to warming trends in most cases, although a touch of chill will still be in the air for most of Canada and the U.S. Tuesday. Desert Southwest locations such as Phoenix and some Florida cities will be the only ones hitting 80 or higher.

However, the South will be divided by opposing temperature trends. Conditions are warming up roughly from around the Mississippi River westward, and Houston will be reaching the low 80s by the end of the week. But the eastern end of the region is cooling off, with Atlanta and Birmingham, AL, not expected to reach the 70-degree mark Tuesday.

A Gulf Coast producer reported seeing a significant increase in incremental buying in the Northeast and Midwest following a weak weekend market. He said a Chicago-area customer had told him there was frost on the ground in parts of the Midwest early Monday morning, but a warming trend was under way. Based on declining weather-based demand and Monday’s screen weakness, he expects softer cash numbers Tuesday.

Tennessee has issued an Imbalance Warning for several upstream zones (see Transportation Notes), but that’s relatively inconsequential, the producer said. He was unaware of any other transportation constraints of any significance.

The Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count reported an increase of 14 drilling rigs to 973 seeking natural gas in the U.S. during the week ending April 16. All of the uptick occurred onshore, Baker Hughes said, as there was no change in the Gulf of Mexico tally. Its latest count is 4% higher than a month ago and up 28% from the year-earlier level.

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