There were no blizzards or major heat waves in the near-term sights of the weather radar, but spot prices managed to rebound by large amounts across the board Tuesday from the depths to which they had sunk on Friday. They did have support from both Friday’s 22-cent futures gain (which broke a string of downward sessions) and the return of industrial load from the extra losses it incurs on a holiday weekend.

There was some speculation about bargain hunting after a sizeable majority of points averaged less than $2 — quite a few of them for the first time in seven years or so — going into the Labor Day weekend.

All points were solidly above $2 again (with the PG&E citygate slightly exceeding $3) as advances ranged from a little more than 40 cents to a little more than 70 cents. Nearly all were half a dollar or greater.

More than any new surges of weather-based demand, the market may have gotten a boost from the easing of conditions that allowed several pipelines to rescind OFOs or other restrictions on due-pipe imbalances that had been announced prior to the weekend (see Transportation Notes). SoCalGas and PG&E added high-linepack OFOs of their own during the long weekend, but those were being lifted either Tuesday or Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Florida Gas Zone 3 recorded one of the day’s biggest gains after Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) cited forecasts of mid 90s temperatures in issuing an Overage Alert Day (OAD) Tuesday.

Front-month futures will continue to provide prior-day support for cash quotes Wednesday (but less than before) after the October contract rose another 7.9 cents Tuesday (see related story).

The formation of Tropical Storm Fred Monday evening in the far eastern Atlantic south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands could hardly have had any bullish price impact. It was extremely doubtful that Fred will become a concern for Gulf of Mexico production interests because its early projected tracking indicated an early turn to the north-northwest while still far from the Americas. Fred is not expected to threaten any land masses, said The Weather Channel, although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said the storm was strengthening Tuesday and was expected to become a hurricane.

A low-pressure area just east of North Carolina’s Outer Banks was producing showers and thunderstorms, NHC said, but upper-level winds were likely to remain unfavorable for tropical storm development as it moves slowly northeastward.

Nothing in the immediate overall weather outlook suggests a basis for Tuesday’s big rebounds. Peak temperatures in the low 90s to 100 area are still being expected from most of Texas through the desert Southwest, and mid 90s highs are returning to interior California. However, Oklahoma and the South east of Texas are being limited to about 90 or lower. And despite FGT’s OAD posting, Weather Central expects Miami, Orlando and Jacksonville to get no higher than 89-90 Wednesday.

Across the northern half of the United States and into Canada and along the California coast, the forecast is still mild to cool, which would come close to eliminating any remaining cooling load in that area without creating any replacement heating load.

A Northeast marketer suggested that Friday’s severe price weakness may have partially resulted from some traders going short on their actual supply needs for the holiday weekend, and thus they were “getting squeezed a little” Tuesday. “Some pretty good bargains” may have attracted other buyers, he said. He did not regard weather-based demand as a substantial factor in the Tuesday rally.

The marketer said he looks for further — but quite a bit smaller — increases Wednesday, adding that he certainly wouldn’t expect another round of half dollar-plus spikes at most points. It’s been getting a little cooler at nights in the Northeast, he said, but generally it still feels more like summer than fall.

In its six- to 10-day forecast posted Tuesday afternoon for the Sept. 14-18 workweek, the National Weather Service (NWS) looks for below-normal temperatures along the East Coast from southern New England through most of the Florida peninsula. The below-normal area should extend through central New York through most of the Midwest, the Midcontinent and horizontally through central Texas in the south to the eastern end of New Mexico, NWS said. It predicted above-normal readings in noncoastal New England from northwestern Maine through the northern tip of New York; in South Texas; and everywhere except coastal California west of a line generally running southwestward from most of North Dakota to the southeast corner of Arizona.

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