Except for the Rockies and Pacific Northwest, fundamentalsremained kind of on the wimpy side in most markets Monday. However,going on the theory that a bird in the bush (weather forecast) isworth more than two or three in the hand (current conditions),traders sent prices higher by about a dime or more at most points.Although the screen provided a smidgen of support with a gain ofslightly over 6 cents, sources agreed that a new forecast for muchcolder temperatures than anything seen previously was the mainfactor in rising cash prices.

The National Weather Service followed up Friday’s six- to 10-dayprognostication of below-normal temperatures in the middle half ofthe U.S. with one Monday that didn’t include any above-normalforecasts anywhere. Instead, the below to much-below normalforecast was widened to include most of the nation west of theMississippi River and also most of the Northeast. And while theMidwest and Southeast were projected to have normal readings,”normal” for mid-December is much colder than the regions have beenexperiencing in recent months.

One source called it “the most bullish weather outlook I’ve seenin about three winters.”

However, a few traders clung to the “I’ll believe it when I feelit” market philosophy. “We haven’t had much in the way ofbelow-normal temperatures in the Midcontinent yet,” said a regionalmarketer, “and Chicago is running about 238 heating degree daysbelow normal. I’m going with past history rather than forecastsuntil the forecasts prove themselves to me.”

And a Gulf Coast source argued that Friday’s NWS forecast ofcolder weather was a 360-degree turnaround from Wednesday’s muchmilder one. Such a radical about-face makes it hard to put muchfaith in the latest developments, he said.

Regardless, there was demand out there Monday even withoutfundamentals, according to a producer. He thought marketers werecoming up short and being forced to buy more gas. However, he sawcompetition from Midwestern LDCs selling gas in the field.

Most of Monday’s sub-dime increases occurred in theRockies/Pacific Northwest and California, which had tended to seemost of last week’s biggest gains.

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