Following four days of mixed price movement, Friday’s cash market emulated the one a week earlier in which all points recorded drops. Cooling load was due to fall during the weekend in some key power generation markets for gas; the screen had provided strongly negative guidance the day before with a 32-cent dive by September futures, and the usual weekend loss of industrial load was another factor in the softness.

Only El Paso’s San Juan-Bondad pool failed to fall by double digits as losses ranged from a little more than a nickel to nearly half a dollar.

There’s a very good chance for a rally Monday after the National Hurricane Center (NHC) posted its first advisory late Friday afternoon on the formation of Tropical Storm Fay over eastern Dominican Republic. Previously models had indicated that if Fay did develop, it would move up the Atlantic side of Florida. But NHC’s “five-day cone” of projected tracking had Fay approaching the southwest corner of Florida instead by late Monday and proceeding up the Gulf Coast side.

Fay may be weakened by then because the NHC’s expected path will take it across the mountainous terrain of Cuba. The federal agency has the storm continuing into the southern junction of Florida’s Panhandle and peninsula Wednesday, but if it falters along the way, that might allow it to take a westward turn into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

At 5 p.m. AST Friday the center of Fay was about 35 miles east of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and about 395 miles east-southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. It was moving westward at nearly 14 mph with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph, NHC said.

Shell was already issuing operational advisories Friday about the tropical storm potential and effects on its operations. “We have not initiated any evacuations today, and there is still no impact to Shell-operated production at this time,” the major producer said. “We are making plans today to reduce our offshore staffing levels over the weekend, if we decide that is warranted, by evacuating some personnel from our East [Gulf of Mexico] operations area who would not be essential to ongoing drilling and production operations.”

It is mid-August, right? Yes, but the Rockies could expect overnight lows in the 40s during the weekend. One source remarked that was like the middle of winter in Houston.

The Weather Channel commented that the West’s “hot-cool temperature dichotomy” would continue through the weekend with highs five to 20 degrees above average in the Pacific Northwest but five to 20 degrees below average in the vicinity of an upper-level low over Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. Portland, OR, was due to cool off a bit after recent highs slightly above 100, but only to the mid to upper 90s.

Meanwhile, a widespread area of thunderstorms was due to cool off previous highs in the 90s in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee into the 80s (and even the 70s in some cases) during the weekend, although most of the rest of the South would continue to see seasonal peaks around 90 or greater. Gas-fired electric generation tends to be heavier in the cooling areas than most other regions.

The Midwest was forecast to see a warming trend over the weekend, but only to highs in the low 80s Friday, which doesn’t prompt a big increase in air conditioning use. The Northeast would continue to see little change in generally moderate weather and could anticipate cooling off further early week as a new cold front moves southward into the region from Eastern Canada, according to The Weather Channel.

Daniel Guertin of Lehman Brothers said the North American temperature pattern in the short term will feature cool conditions in the Midwest and East and warm conditions in the West, but with a warmer trend developing in the East for the six- to 10-day period. Noting Friday morning (well in advance of the Fay announcement) that the tropical wave near Puerto Rico still had not become a tropical depression, Guertin said that “interaction with land (Puerto Rico and Hispaniola) should limit the extent of strengthening for the next 24-48 hours. The forecast models this morning show this system developing into a storm over the Bahamas this weekend and early next week, with a turn toward Florida expected” in three to four days. “Thereafter it may stall near the Florida peninsula, and it is possible that it could cross into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later next week.”

A Gulf Coast producer said prices “faltered a bit” and moved lower in Friday’s late deals.

A Midwestern marketer confirmed that trend, noting that she bought her first Consumers Energy package at $8.11 and then made a later citygate purchase in the upper $7.90s. For now her region is enjoying fairly comfortable temperatures but should see highs start rising into the upper 80s this week, she said.

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